🌊 Lakefront
2930 Point East Dr Unit E109 · Aventura, FL
Flood risk 7/10 · Major
- FEMA flood zone
- AE
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.91%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $1,737 – $8,500
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 104°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 25 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- 1% rule +10.0/10.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Appreciation +5.3/10.0
- Schools +4.2/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.7/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$179,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
HOPA VERIFIED GATED WATERFRONT COMMUNITY IN AVENTURA. 10 MINS FROM AVENTURA MALL AND 15 MINS FROM GULFSTREAM RACETRACK. ON-SITE MANAGEMENT. SPACIOUS APT WITH LOTS OF CLOSET SPACE. ALMOST 2 MILES OF SIDEWALKS FOR PEACEFUL WALKS AND MUCH OF IT IS ON THE WAT ER. YOU CAN ENJOY THE PEACE AND QUIET OR GET INVOLVED IN SOME OF THE MANY ACTIVITIES OFFERED. LIVE SHOWS, DANCING, MOVIES, 3 SOCIAL CLUBS, POOL ROOM WITH 6 TABLES, EXERCISE ROOM, CARD ROOM, BOWLING ALLEY, 5 SWIMMING POOLS, COURTESY BUS 6 DAYS A WEEK.
Key facts
- Clubhouse with gym
- Private balcony
- Renovated kitchen
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Other: Property is part of a senior community; Community contains 1,266 units
- Financial info: Pets allowed (conditional; restrictions or possible restrictions)
- HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, billiard room, library, laundry, storage, trails, transportation service; Association fee includes management, cable TV, internet, pest control, sewer, trash, water
Exterior
- Parking: Assigned detached garage space; 1 covered parking space
- Security: Complex fenced; Security guard; Smoke detectors
- Utilities: Cable available
- Home design: Condo/Apartment in a multi-story building; 1 story unit in a building with 6 stories; Northwest-facing; Entry level: 1; Attached property
- Construction: Block construction; Resale property
- Exterior features: Balcony (open, screened); Wall fencing; Association pool
Interior
- Kitchen: Built-in oven; Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
- Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level
- Flooring: Tile
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
- Interior features: First-floor entry; Living/dining room; Main living area on entry level; Walk-in closet(s); Unfurnished
- Laundry & utility: Common area laundry
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $180k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
- Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 2.6% in Aventura — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 80/100 on livability (#127 in FL, #1,834 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, health & safety A+, amenities A; Watch: crime D+, cost of living F.
- Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 1870 active listings in the ZIP; 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $3,424/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($67k/yr) (locally 3106% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $948 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
- Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 0.9% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 505 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $45k; list at $180k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
- Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 505 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
- What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
- Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.90% ✓
- Cap rate
- 12.95%
- Cash-on-cash
- 23.77%
- DSCR
- 2.06
- GRM
- 4.4
CMA / ARV
No comps found within radius.
Projected returns pro-forma
0.53% appreciation · 0.94% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 12.0%
- Equity multiple
- 1.58×
- Total profit
- $29,273
- Equity at exit
- $57,027
- IRR
- 14.2%
- Equity multiple
- 2.51×
- Total profit
- $76,205
- Equity at exit
- $72,499
Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 33160
- Home prices YoY
- 0.2%
- Rents YoY
- 0.9%
- Active inventory
- 1870
- Price-to-rent
- 4.4×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $3,424 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$943
- Tax from tax record
- −$191 /mo · $2,297/yr
- Insurance
- −$75
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
- HOA
- −$497
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$719
- Net cashflow
- $571
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $44,975
- Closing costs
- $5,397
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
HOA detail condo
- Monthly dues
- $497 · $5,964/yr
- Likely covers
- waterpoolsecurity
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 21 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $179,900 Active 505 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $179,900 Active 504 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $179,900 Active 503 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $179,900 Active 502 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $179,900 Active 500 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $179,900 Active 496 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $179,900 Active 495 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $179,900 Active 494 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $179,900 Active 491 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $179,900 Active 490 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $179,900 Active 489 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $179,900 Active 488 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $179,900 Active 487 DOM
-
2025-11-26status Active
-
2025-11-26status Pending
-
2025-09-18status Active
-
2025-08-25historical Active Under Contract
-
2025-04-07price $179,900
-
2025-01-29$199,900 Active
-
2011-04-28soldstatus $45,000 506-char remark
Show marketing remark (506 chars)
HOPA VERIFIED GATED WATERFRONT COMMUNITY IN AVENTURA. 10 MINS FROM AVENTURA MALL AND 15 MINS FROM GULFSTREAM RACETRACK. ON-SITE MANAGEMENT. SPACIOUS APT WITH LOTS OF CLOSET SPACE. ALMOST 2 MILES OF SIDEWALKS FOR PEACEFUL WALKS AND MUCH OF IT IS ON THE WAT ER. YOU CAN ENJOY THE PEACE AND QUIET OR GET INVOLVED IN SOME OF THE MANY ACTIVITIES OFFERED. LIVE SHOWS, DANCING, MOVIES, 3 SOCIAL CLUBS, POOL ROOM WITH 6 TABLES, EXERCISE ROOM, CARD ROOM, BOWLING ALLEY, 5 SWIMMING POOLS, COURTESY BUS 6 DAYS A WEEK.
-
1977-07-01soldstatus $26,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $2,297 · $191/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $2,297 · $191/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 91% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $41,084
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,077
- − Property taxes
- −$2,297
- − Insurance
- −$6,018
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$3,287
- − Management
- −$3,287
- − HOA
- −$5,964
- − Depreciation
- −$5,233
- Taxable income
- $4,920
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$1,181
- After-tax cash flow
- $5,675/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Miami-Dade
- NCES district ID
- 1200390
- Math proficiency
- 45% ▼ -16.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 54% ▼ -5.00%
- Median HH income
- $43,928
- Composite
- 41.76/100
- National rank
- #3397
- State rank
- #40 of 73 in FL
Livability — Aventura
- Score
- 80/100
- State rank
- #127
- US rank
- #1834
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Aventura, FL
- County
- Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
- City population
- 90,324
- Metro
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 43,718
- Household income
- $67,040
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 3106.0
Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 3,126,439 people
- By 2030
- 3,325,765 · +6.4%
- By 2040
- 3,697,561 · +18.3%
- By 2050
- 4,012,134 · +28.3%
- By 2075
- 4,605,612 · +47.3%
- By 2100
- 4,866,598 · +55.7%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
- Race & ethnicity
- Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 27% Black 4% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 8% Dominican 1% Salvadoran 4%
- Common ancestry
- Scotch-Irish 8% Hispanic 3% Subsaharan African 3%
- Foreign-born
- 61% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
- Languages at home
- 29% English-only · Spanish 45% Russian/Polish/Slavic 12% Other Indo-European 5%
Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade
- 2024 margin
- R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 0.53%
- Current HPI
- 284.9293
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.94%
- Metro
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+591.9% since first listed8 events — show timeline
- 2025-11-26 Relisted — MARMLS
- 2025-11-26 Pending — MARMLS
- 2025-09-18 Relisted — MARMLS
- 2025-08-25 Contingent — MARMLS
- 2025-04-07 Price Changed $179,900 MARMLS
- 2025-01-29 Listed $199,900 MARMLS
- 2011-04-28 Sold (MLS) $45,000 MARMLS
- 1977-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+6.7%/yrLatest (2025): $2,297 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…