12861 SW 77th Cir · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$296,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,751 sqft · Land · 176 Days on market

Built 2025 10,019 sqft lot $170/sqft · 6% above area Est $280k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern New Construction Home in Prime Ocala Location Discover this stunning new construction home in the heart of Ocala, combining modern design with everyday comfort. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this residence offers an ideal layout for families or those who love to entertain. The primary suite includes a luxurious walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms feature built-in closets for ample storage. The open-concept floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living room and dining area, both filled with natural light and enhanced by sliding glass doors that open to a covered rear porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The elegant kitchen showcases solid wood cabinets, stone countertops, and modern appliances—a beautiful and functional space for cooking and connection. A 2-car attached garage provides convenience and extra storage, while the home’s location adds tremendous value—situated near a main road for easy commuting and close to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining options. This home offers a blend of style, functionality, and location—an ideal choice for those seeking a fresh start in one of Ocala’s most desirable areas.

Key facts

• Solid wood cabinets
• Prime ocala location
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• PRIME OCALA LOCATION
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• SOLID WOOD CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $297k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-893/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (4.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1372 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $297k implies a 1879% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,648 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.07%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,005
• List price: $296,900
• Delta: 6.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,183
• Equity at exit: $44,269

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-82,147
• Equity at exit: $25,670

Cash invested: $83,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1372
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,106 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,557
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $694/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$442
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,201

Max offer price $283,758

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $10	+0% $-74	+5% $-158	+10% $-242
Rent	-10% $-241	-5% $-158	+0% $-74	+5% $9	+10% $92
Rate	-1.0pp $75	-0.5pp $1	base $-74	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,225
• Closing costs: $8,907
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13215 SW 77th Ave Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,800	$1.37	15d	1	0.45mi
13101 SW 72nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	2088	$2,250	$1.08	15d	1	0.53mi
13130 SW 78th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1816	$1,900	$1.05	15d	1	0.63mi
8070 SW 131st Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	15d	1	0.65mi
8181 SW 128th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,745	$1.24	15d	1	0.71mi
13033 SW 82nd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,895	$1.34	15d	1	0.78mi
7146 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1733	$1,600	$0.92	22d	1	0.81mi
7060 SW 131st Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	15d	1	0.82mi
6872 SW 132nd Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	22d	1	0.86mi
7052 SW 131st Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1718	$1,550	$0.90	22d	1	0.87mi
6872 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	22d	1	0.89mi
12847 SW 84th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,850	$1.33	22d	1	0.92mi
13092 SW 84th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,800	$1.00	22d	1	0.94mi
13205 SW 65th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	15d	1	0.96mi
6732 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,950	$1.10	15d	1	0.98mi
6555 SW 129th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,675	$1.23	15d	1	0.99mi
7883 SW 138th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1865	$2,125	$1.14	22d	1	1.01mi
8341 SW 135th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$1,600	$0.99	22d	1	1.05mi
7011 SW 136th Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,300	$1.38	15d	1	1.05mi
8427 SW 136th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,095	$1.19	22d	1	1.16mi
13153 SW 65th Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	1.16mi
769 Marion Oaks Pass Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,950	$1.15	15d	1	1.19mi
7867 SW 115th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,600	$1.09	22d	1	1.26mi
8934 SW 135th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	1824	$2,200	$1.21	22d	1	1.36mi
8398 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$1,900	$1.14	22d	1	1.36mi
12816 SW 61st Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2134	$2,100	$0.98	15d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $296,900 Pending 176 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $296,900 Active 175 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $296,900 Active 174 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,900 Active 173 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,900 Active 172 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $296,900 Active 168 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $296,900 Active 167 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $296,900 Active 165 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $296,900 Active 164 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    price $296,900 1234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1234 chars)

    Modern New Construction Home in Prime Ocala Location Discover this stunning new construction home in the heart of Ocala, combining modern design with everyday comfort. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this residence offers an ideal layout for families or those who love to entertain. The primary suite includes a luxurious walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms feature built-in closets for ample storage. The open-concept floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living room and dining area, both filled with natural light and enhanced by sliding glass doors that open to a covered rear porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The elegant kitchen showcases solid wood cabinets, stone countertops, and modern appliances—a beautiful and functional space for cooking and connection. A 2-car attached garage provides convenience and extra storage, while the home’s location adds tremendous value—situated near a main road for easy commuting and close to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining options. This home offers a blend of style, functionality, and location—an ideal choice for those seeking a fresh start in one of Ocala’s most desirable areas.

11. 2026-03-24
    price $299,900 1234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1234 chars)

    Modern New Construction Home in Prime Ocala Location Discover this stunning new construction home in the heart of Ocala, combining modern design with everyday comfort. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this residence offers an ideal layout for families or those who love to entertain. The primary suite includes a luxurious walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms feature built-in closets for ample storage. The open-concept floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living room and dining area, both filled with natural light and enhanced by sliding glass doors that open to a covered rear porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The elegant kitchen showcases solid wood cabinets, stone countertops, and modern appliances—a beautiful and functional space for cooking and connection. A 2-car attached garage provides convenience and extra storage, while the home’s location adds tremendous value—situated near a main road for easy commuting and close to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining options. This home offers a blend of style, functionality, and location—an ideal choice for those seeking a fresh start in one of Ocala’s most desirable areas.

12. 2026-01-21
    price $309,900 1234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1234 chars)

    Modern New Construction Home in Prime Ocala Location Discover this stunning new construction home in the heart of Ocala, combining modern design with everyday comfort. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this residence offers an ideal layout for families or those who love to entertain. The primary suite includes a luxurious walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms feature built-in closets for ample storage. The open-concept floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living room and dining area, both filled with natural light and enhanced by sliding glass doors that open to a covered rear porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The elegant kitchen showcases solid wood cabinets, stone countertops, and modern appliances—a beautiful and functional space for cooking and connection. A 2-car attached garage provides convenience and extra storage, while the home’s location adds tremendous value—situated near a main road for easy commuting and close to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining options. This home offers a blend of style, functionality, and location—an ideal choice for those seeking a fresh start in one of Ocala’s most desirable areas.

13. 2025-12-17
    listed $319,000 Active 1234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1234 chars)

    Modern New Construction Home in Prime Ocala Location Discover this stunning new construction home in the heart of Ocala, combining modern design with everyday comfort. Featuring 4 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this residence offers an ideal layout for families or those who love to entertain. The primary suite includes a luxurious walk-in closet, while the additional bedrooms feature built-in closets for ample storage. The open-concept floorplan creates a seamless flow between the living room and dining area, both filled with natural light and enhanced by sliding glass doors that open to a covered rear porch, perfect for relaxing or hosting gatherings year-round. The elegant kitchen showcases solid wood cabinets, stone countertops, and modern appliances—a beautiful and functional space for cooking and connection. A 2-car attached garage provides convenience and extra storage, while the home’s location adds tremendous value—situated near a main road for easy commuting and close to top-rated schools, shopping, and dining options. This home offers a blend of style, functionality, and location—an ideal choice for those seeking a fresh start in one of Ocala’s most desirable areas.

14. 2004-09-24
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $694 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,464 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,770/yr (+$148/mo · 255.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,278
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,631
• − Property taxes: −$694
• − Insurance: −$1,484
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,022
• − Management: −$2,022
• − Depreciation: −$8,637
• Taxable loss: −$6,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,491
• After-tax cash flow: $598/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1879.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $296,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $309,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $694 · +83.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.