1031 Rt-221 · Virgil, NY 13784

$110,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 215 Days on market

Built 1954 0.40 ac lot Est $158k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nicely maintained well built ranch on a full basement situated on approximately 1/3 acre. Highlights include an eat-in kitchen, formal dining room with sliding glass doors, living room with hardwood floors and built-in shelves, 3 bedrooms, half bath with laundry, full bath, large mud room in entrance way, back porch area, 2 car attached garage, concrete driveway and more.

Key facts

• Attached car garage
• Centrally located
• 0.4 acre lot

Tags

• ATTACHED CAR GARAGE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $84k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $100k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $84k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#963 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D, crime F.
• Marathon Central School District (rural): math 42% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #437 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 45 units permitted in Cortland County in 2024 (12 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (7.0% local appreciation)).
• Cortland County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,569 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.27%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.67%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $157,638
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1031 Rt-221	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,118 (0%)	1mo	$92,500	$83	100
1098 State Route 221	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,199 (+7%)	6mo	$168,500	$141	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $28,809
• Equity at exit: $76,018

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $91,135
• Equity at exit: $144,211

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13784

• Home prices YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 3
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $995 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,089/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$209
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,184

Max offer price $83,569

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
786 State Route 221 Harford, NY	3.0	2.0	880	$995	$1.13	44d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-05
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-12-07
   price $110,000
4. 2025-10-17
   status Active
5. 2025-09-15
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2025-09-02
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2019-06-11
   soldstatus $90,000
8. 2019-06-01
   soldstatus $90,000 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Nicely maintained well built ranch on a full basement situated on approximately 1/3 acre. Highlights include an eat-in kitchen, formal dining room with sliding glass doors, living room with hardwood floors and built-in shelves, 3 bedrooms, half bath with laundry, full bath, large mud room in entrance way, back porch area, 2 car attached garage, concrete driveway and more.

9. 2018-06-25
   listed $99,500 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Nicely maintained well built ranch on a full basement situated on approximately 1/3 acre. Highlights include an eat-in kitchen, formal dining room with sliding glass doors, living room with hardwood floors and built-in shelves, 3 bedrooms, half bath with laundry, full bath, large mud room in entrance way, back porch area, 2 car attached garage, concrete driveway and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,089 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,089 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$3,089
• − Insurance: −$1,216
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$955
• − Management: −$955
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$3,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$873
• After-tax cash flow: $-922/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marathon Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,011
• Composite: 39.95/100
• National rank: #3842
• State rank: #437 of 590 in NY

Livability — Virgil

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #963
• US rank: #18876

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 383

Population outlook (Cortland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,543 people
• By 2030: 46,107 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 43,122 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 40,216 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 34,717 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 28,953 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cortland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 46.8% · R 53.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: 10.0pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: R+6.7 2012: D+8.8 2008: D+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.97%
• Current HPI: 160.1896
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-02-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-12-07 Price Changed $110,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-17 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2025-09-15 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $125,000 CNYIS
• 2019-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-01 Sold (MLS) $90,000 IBRMLS
• 2018-06-25 Listed $99,500 IBRMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,089 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.