4625 Saint Croix Ln #1126 · Pelican Marsh, FL 34109

$249,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 913 sqft · Condo public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1999 $470/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW OFFER ACCEPTED WAITING FOR SIGNATURES- NEW in St Croix at Pelican Marsh in North Naples easy access to I-75 & Livington Road. Come and check this Second floor 2/2 condo, tile thought-out , spacious entry-foyer, split bedroom, screen porch, inside laundry, newer or brand-new appliances (RHEIM AC 5/2019 and water heater 9/20, refrigerator 3/21, range 6/2018, dishwasher and microwave 12/2021 never used), deeded covered parking Professionally managed gated community offers an array of amenities including a Club House, well equipped exercise room, pool, spa and cabana with grill, tennis and pickle ball court, playground. The HOA fees include basic cable, concierge service, inside and outside pest service. Boat storage area when available subject to a yearly fee. Conveniently located a few miles from the beautiful Naples beaches or downtown historic Naples minutes from the Mercato and Water Park.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Fitness center
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PRIVATE SCREENED LANAI
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• FITNESS CENTER
• TENNIS COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a complex with 350 units and 12 units in the building; Two units per floor; single-story building
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with on-site management; Quarterly master HOA fee; HOA covers cable, irrigation water, street lights, street maintenance, and trash removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, play area, sidewalks, streetlights, and tennis court; Total annual recurring HOA fees listed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking available (community lot)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property in the ST CROIX community; Low-rise (1–3) building; Rear exposure to the east
• Construction: Built in 1999; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Single-hung windows
• Exterior features: Tennis court; Parking lot view; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Dining area combined with living room; Screened lanai/porch; Split bedroom floor plan; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Smoke detector

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 424 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $734 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,264 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.77%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.29% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,188
• Equity at exit: $75,995

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-17,994
• Equity at exit: $94,352

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34109

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,404/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$470
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $210,264

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4620 Saint Croix Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	982	$1,800	$1.83	13d	2	0.02mi
4635 Saint Croix Ln #1214 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$1,900	$2.08	13d	1	0.05mi
4650 Saint Croix Ln #725 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	913	$2,150	$2.35	13d	1	0.07mi
4680 Saint Croix Ln Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	931	$2,000	$2.15	13d	2	0.09mi
4710 Saint Croix Ln #217 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1045	$2,200	$2.11	23d	1	0.12mi
5000 Immokalee Rd Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1115	$3,186	$2.86	13d	68	0.36mi
144 Cypress Way E Unit 701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1064	$1,900	$1.79	13d	1	0.91mi
2385 Naples Trace Cir #2 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	23d	1	0.91mi
1020 Palm View Dr Unit C-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$2,600	$2.58	13d	1	1.06mi
1020 Palm View Dr Unit 103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,750	$1.61	23d	1	1.06mi
137 Wading Bird Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1085	$1,650	$1.52	23d	1	1.07mi
138 Pebble Shores Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$2,450	$2.35	13d	1	1.08mi
113 Wading Bird Cir Unit W-204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1084	$3,000	$2.77	13d	1	1.15mi
2115 Malibu Lake Cir Naples, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1188	$2,282	$1.92	13d	56	1.16mi
157 Wading Bird Cir #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	23d	1	1.17mi
186 Pebble Shores Dr #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1042	$2,500	$2.40	23d	1	1.22mi
2820 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,748	$2.99	23d	3	1.22mi
2925 Cypress Trace Cir #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$4,500	$4.11	23d	1	1.39mi
2456 Millcreek Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,375	$2.15	23d	1	1.41mi
6605 Huntington Lakes Cir #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,400	$2.17	23d	1	1.41mi
2469 Millcreek Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$3,495	$3.16	23d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $470 · $5,640/yr
• Likely covers: watercablepooldoormansecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $249,000 Active
16. 2025-12-01
    historical
17. 2025-08-26
    price $264,900
18. 2025-08-06
    price $279,000
19. 2025-06-06
    listed $289,000 Active
20. 2022-03-11
    soldstatus $252,000
21. 2022-03-04
    soldstatus $252,000 Sold 914-char remark

    Show marketing remark (914 chars)

    NEW OFFER ACCEPTED WAITING FOR SIGNATURES- NEW in St Croix at Pelican Marsh in North Naples easy access to I-75 & Livington Road. Come and check this Second floor 2/2 condo, tile thought-out , spacious entry-foyer, split bedroom, screen porch, inside laundry, newer or brand-new appliances (RHEIM AC 5/2019 and water heater 9/20, refrigerator 3/21, range 6/2018, dishwasher and microwave 12/2021 never used), deeded covered parking Professionally managed gated community offers an array of amenities including a Club House, well equipped exercise room, pool, spa and cabana with grill, tennis and pickle ball court, playground. The HOA fees include basic cable, concierge service, inside and outside pest service. Boat storage area when available subject to a yearly fee. Conveniently located a few miles from the beautiful Naples beaches or downtown historic Naples minutes from the Mercato and Water Park.

22. 2022-01-24
    status Pending 914-char remark

    Show marketing remark (914 chars)

    NEW OFFER ACCEPTED WAITING FOR SIGNATURES- NEW in St Croix at Pelican Marsh in North Naples easy access to I-75 & Livington Road. Come and check this Second floor 2/2 condo, tile thought-out , spacious entry-foyer, split bedroom, screen porch, inside laundry, newer or brand-new appliances (RHEIM AC 5/2019 and water heater 9/20, refrigerator 3/21, range 6/2018, dishwasher and microwave 12/2021 never used), deeded covered parking Professionally managed gated community offers an array of amenities including a Club House, well equipped exercise room, pool, spa and cabana with grill, tennis and pickle ball court, playground. The HOA fees include basic cable, concierge service, inside and outside pest service. Boat storage area when available subject to a yearly fee. Conveniently located a few miles from the beautiful Naples beaches or downtown historic Naples minutes from the Mercato and Water Park.

23. 2022-01-24
    status Active 914-char remark

    Show marketing remark (914 chars)

    NEW OFFER ACCEPTED WAITING FOR SIGNATURES- NEW in St Croix at Pelican Marsh in North Naples easy access to I-75 & Livington Road. Come and check this Second floor 2/2 condo, tile thought-out , spacious entry-foyer, split bedroom, screen porch, inside laundry, newer or brand-new appliances (RHEIM AC 5/2019 and water heater 9/20, refrigerator 3/21, range 6/2018, dishwasher and microwave 12/2021 never used), deeded covered parking Professionally managed gated community offers an array of amenities including a Club House, well equipped exercise room, pool, spa and cabana with grill, tennis and pickle ball court, playground. The HOA fees include basic cable, concierge service, inside and outside pest service. Boat storage area when available subject to a yearly fee. Conveniently located a few miles from the beautiful Naples beaches or downtown historic Naples minutes from the Mercato and Water Park.

24. 2022-01-14
    status Pending 914-char remark

    Show marketing remark (914 chars)

    NEW OFFER ACCEPTED WAITING FOR SIGNATURES- NEW in St Croix at Pelican Marsh in North Naples easy access to I-75 & Livington Road. Come and check this Second floor 2/2 condo, tile thought-out , spacious entry-foyer, split bedroom, screen porch, inside laundry, newer or brand-new appliances (RHEIM AC 5/2019 and water heater 9/20, refrigerator 3/21, range 6/2018, dishwasher and microwave 12/2021 never used), deeded covered parking Professionally managed gated community offers an array of amenities including a Club House, well equipped exercise room, pool, spa and cabana with grill, tennis and pickle ball court, playground. The HOA fees include basic cable, concierge service, inside and outside pest service. Boat storage area when available subject to a yearly fee. Conveniently located a few miles from the beautiful Naples beaches or downtown historic Naples minutes from the Mercato and Water Park.

25. 2022-01-11
    listed $219,900 Active 914-char remark

    Show marketing remark (914 chars)

    NEW OFFER ACCEPTED WAITING FOR SIGNATURES- NEW in St Croix at Pelican Marsh in North Naples easy access to I-75 & Livington Road. Come and check this Second floor 2/2 condo, tile thought-out , spacious entry-foyer, split bedroom, screen porch, inside laundry, newer or brand-new appliances (RHEIM AC 5/2019 and water heater 9/20, refrigerator 3/21, range 6/2018, dishwasher and microwave 12/2021 never used), deeded covered parking Professionally managed gated community offers an array of amenities including a Club House, well equipped exercise room, pool, spa and cabana with grill, tennis and pickle ball court, playground. The HOA fees include basic cable, concierge service, inside and outside pest service. Boat storage area when available subject to a yearly fee. Conveniently located a few miles from the beautiful Naples beaches or downtown historic Naples minutes from the Mercato and Water Park.

26. 2010-06-22
    listed $92,000
27. 2010-04-20
    soldstatus $72,000
28. 2010-02-24
    listed $64,400

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,404 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,067 · $172/mo
• Expected delta: +$662/yr (+$55/mo · 47.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,997
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,404
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,160
• − Management: −$2,160
• − HOA: −$5,640
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,633
• After-tax cash flow: $-998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pelican Marsh

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,273
• Household income: $92,259
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1712.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Black 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.29%
• Current HPI: 279.357
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+286.6% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $249,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-26 Price Changed $264,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $279,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $289,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-03-11 Sold (Public Records) $252,000 Public Records
• 2022-03-04 Sold (MLS) $252,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-24 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-24 Relisted — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-14 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-11 Listed $219,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-06-22 Listed $92,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-04-20 Sold (MLS) $72,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2010-02-24 Listed $64,400 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2021): $1,404 · +7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.