Plan 1511 Modeled Plan · North Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

$249,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,511 sqft · SingleFamily · 281 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Kitchen island with seating * Open floor plan * Back patio * Extended dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Walk-in closet at primary bedroom * Stainless steel appliance package * Spacious great room * Smart thermostat * Dedicated laundry room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Tot lot * Dog park * Commuter-friendly location * Near the ocean * Outdoor recreation nearby * Master-planned community

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Back patio
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND WITH SEATING
• BACK PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• ENERGY STAR CERTIFIED HOME

🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $297,325.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in North Weeki Wachee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#534 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Winding Waters K-8 (math 50% / reading 48%, grade D, #1,134 of 2,144 statewide, top 54%, 1,622 students, 56% FRL); Weeki Wachee High School (math 41% / reading 42%, grade F, #284 of 667 statewide, top 43%, 1,435 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 878 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 98d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,529/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $219,991 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.82%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $297,325
• List price: $249,990
• Delta: -15.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10568 Tucker Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-0%)	1mo	$262,990	$175	92
10554 Tucker Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-0%)	3mo	$256,990	$171	90
10513 Tucker Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-0%)	4mo	$258,990	$172	88
10493 Tucker Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,504 (-0%)	7mo	$279,990	$186	86
10779 Tucker Rd	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	2mo	$289,990	$173	78
10780 Tucker Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	4mo	$287,990	$172	75
10416 Turtle Run Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	6mo	$317,270	$190	72
10377 Turtle Run Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	9mo	$289,990	$173	71
10444 Tucker Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,672 (+11%)	9mo	$295,490	$177	70
10546 Tucker Rd	0.15mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	2mo	$277,990	$167	69
10525 Tucker Rd	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,665 (+10%)	1mo	$279,990	$168	69
10373 Marvista Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,520 (+1%)	7mo	$490,000	$322	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-51,752
• Equity at exit: $44,332

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-49,558
• Equity at exit: $25,707

Cash invested: $83,251 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 26 active · 15 under contract
• Months of supply: 7.8 mo (13%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $298,485 ($178/sqft)
• Median days on market: 196 d
• This list price: 12% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +10.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34613

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 878
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,529 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,559
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$372 /mo · $4,460/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,601

Max offer price $289,122

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $149	-5% $46	+0% $-57	+5% $-159	+10% $-262
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-157	+0% $-57	+5% $43	+10% $143
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $19	base $-57	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,331
• Closing costs: $8,920
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9447 Ashley Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	3.0	2152	$3,100	$1.44	84d	1	0.99mi
9408 New Orleans Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	2.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	119d	1	1.16mi
9300 New Orleans Dr Unit 9300 Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$3,000	$2.22	67d	1	1.30mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	97d	1	1.41mi
9376 Southern Belle Dr Weeki Wachee, FL	3.0	2.0	2028	$2,300	$1.13	100d	1	1.41mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing
• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family new construction — Plan 1511 Modeled
• Construction: Living area approximately 1511
• Exterior features: Located at 10264 Moccasin Ct, Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Interior features: Plan 1511 modeled new construction

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $249,990 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $249,990 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $249,990 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $249,990 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $249,990 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $249,990 Active 276 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $249,990 Active 275 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $249,990 Active 274 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $249,990 Active 273 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $249,990 Active 272 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $249,990 Active 271 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $249,990 Active 270 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 269 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $247,990 Active 263 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $247,990 Active 262 DOM
16. 2026-09-03
    days on market $247,990 Active 261 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $247,990 Active 258 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $247,990 Active 257 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $247,990 Active 256 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $247,990 Active 255 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $247,990 Active 252 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $247,990 Active 251 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $247,990 Active 250 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $247,990 Active 249 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $247,990 Active 247 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $247,990 Active 246 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $247,990 Active 245 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $247,990 Active 244 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $247,990 Active 243 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $247,990 Active 242 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    price $247,990 Active 241 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 241 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 240 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $244,990 Active 239 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 238 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $244,990 Active 237 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 236 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 235 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 233 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 232 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 231 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 230 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 227 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 226 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 225 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 224 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $244,990 Active 222 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 220 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 219 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 218 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,655
• − Property taxes: −$4,460
• − Insurance: −$1,487
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,428
• − Management: −$2,428
• − Depreciation: −$8,649
• Taxable loss: −$5,757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,382
• After-tax cash flow: $701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,555–$22,665 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has potential for further value increase through exterior painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained front yard and landscaping can significantly boost curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winding Waters K-8 D FL #1,134/2,144 Nat'l #13,933/41,679 High Weeki Wachee High School F FL #284/667 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — North Weeki Wachee

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Weeki Wachee, FL
• County: Hernando County · 189,218 people
• City population: 18,280
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,337
• Household income: $58,596
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.51%
• Current HPI: 276.2229
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Active listing
• Financial info: List price $244,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family new construction — Plan 1511 Modeled
• Construction: Living area approximately 1511
• Exterior features: Located at 10264 Moccasin Ct, Weeki Wachee, FL 34613

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Interior features: Plan 1511 modeled new construction