3435 Old Richardson Hwy · Moose Creek, AK 99705

$160,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 320 Days on market

Built 1946 1.00 ac lot $132/sqft · 50% below area Est $318k · 50% under ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this ranch style home is ready for its next owner! With plenty of yard space, a back covered porch, and an arctic porch attachment, there is plenty of storage. The boiler was updated in 2024, and the home has been well loved by the same owner for 19 years. Located 5 minutes away from the Eielson gate, this could be a great investment opportunity as well!

Key facts

• Back covered porch
• Boiler updated
• Yard space

Tags

• YARD SPACE
• BACK COVERED PORCH
• BOILER UPDATED
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $817 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#155 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing A-, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.1% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 320 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 320 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.88%
• DSCR: 1.97
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,269
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -49.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $31,141
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.58×
• Total profit: $115,693
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99705

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,360 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,697/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $817

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,325

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3475 Hope St Unit 3 North Pole, AK	2.0	1.0	800	$3,200	$4.00	44d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $160,000 Active 320 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 319 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 318 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 317 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $160,000 Active 316 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 316 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 314 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 313 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 311 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 310 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 309 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 305 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,000 Active 304 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $164,000 Active 303 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 303 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 302 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 301 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 300 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    price $165,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this ranch style home is ready for its next owner! With plenty of yard space, a back covered porch, and an arctic porch attachment, there is plenty of storage. The boiler was updated in 2024, and the home has been well loved by the same owner for 19 years. Located 5 minutes away from the Eielson gate, this could be a great investment opportunity as well!

20. 2026-04-22
    price $168,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this ranch style home is ready for its next owner! With plenty of yard space, a back covered porch, and an arctic porch attachment, there is plenty of storage. The boiler was updated in 2024, and the home has been well loved by the same owner for 19 years. Located 5 minutes away from the Eielson gate, this could be a great investment opportunity as well!

21. 2026-03-23
    price $170,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this ranch style home is ready for its next owner! With plenty of yard space, a back covered porch, and an arctic porch attachment, there is plenty of storage. The boiler was updated in 2024, and the home has been well loved by the same owner for 19 years. Located 5 minutes away from the Eielson gate, this could be a great investment opportunity as well!

22. 2025-12-26
    price $180,000 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this ranch style home is ready for its next owner! With plenty of yard space, a back covered porch, and an arctic porch attachment, there is plenty of storage. The boiler was updated in 2024, and the home has been well loved by the same owner for 19 years. Located 5 minutes away from the Eielson gate, this could be a great investment opportunity as well!

23. 2025-08-04
    listed $190,000 Active 411-char remark

    Show marketing remark (411 chars)

    Offering the perfect blend of privacy and convenience, this ranch style home is ready for its next owner! With plenty of yard space, a back covered porch, and an arctic porch attachment, there is plenty of storage. The boiler was updated in 2024, and the home has been well loved by the same owner for 19 years. Located 5 minutes away from the Eielson gate, this could be a great investment opportunity as well!

24. 2006-08-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,697 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,800 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$104/yr (+$9/mo · 6.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$1,697
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,265
• − Management: −$2,265
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $7,670
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,841
• After-tax cash flow: $7,962/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — Moose Creek

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #23762

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moose Creek, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 21,769
• Household income: $96,964
• Rent vs Own: 23.1% rent · 76.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 237.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Native American 4% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Portuguese 3% Scottish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.32%
• Current HPI: 157.102
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.08%
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-13.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $165,000 GFBR
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $168,000 GFBR
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $170,000 GFBR
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $180,000 GFBR
• 2025-08-04 Listed $190,000 GFBR
• 2006-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,697 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.