317 Estrada · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 172 Days on market

Built 1979 4,493 sqft lot $191/mo HOA · 12% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this enchanting two-bedroom, two-bathroom home, where comfort and style seamlessly intertwine. As you step inside, you are greeted by a spacious 10' x 22' glass-enclosed Florida room, featuring a generous pass-through opening that invites you into the heart of the home—the kitchen. This inviting Florida room flows effortlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a harmonious space for relaxation and entertainment.  The kitchen is a true masterpiece, adorned with elegant new cabinets, stunning granite countertops, and gleaming stainless steel appliances. Its adjacent dining area, enhanced by a new sliding door with built-in blinds, leads to a serene screened lanai, accented with charming shiplap details. This expansive layout is perfect for hosting gatherings with family and friends. The utility room, thoughtfully designed, showcases a washer, dryer, deep sink, workbenches, and ample storage, making everyday tasks a breeze.  Retreat to the primary bedroom, where you’ll find a delightful dressing area complete with a chic new vanity and a spacious walk-in closet. The spa-like primary bathroom boasts a linen chest, a stylish new toilet, and a luxurious walk-in shower. The guest bedroom is equally inviting, featuring a roomy double closet for all your storage needs, while the guest bathroom is equipped with a fresh new vanity, a beautifully tiled tub/shower, and another new toilet.  This exquisite home has been thoughtfully upgraded with a new metal roof, a brand-new carport and shed, fresh paint throughout, a new shiplap ceiling, a newer vapor barrier, a new water heater, and updated plumbing in 2022, complemented by all-new plumbing fixtures.  Embrace the exceptional La Casa lifestyle in this stunning abode, ideally situated near the Clubhouse, Activity Center, and a wealth of amenities. This home is ready for you to create cherished memories in a setting that truly feels like paradise. La Casa boasts 974 home sites nestled among a variety of native trees with spacious common grounds surrounding our eight lakes. La Casa offers the ultimate lifestyle on Florida’s Gulf Coast and is located between Sarasota and Fort Myers. It is convenient for shopping, sightseeing, golfing, fishing, and boating, as well as all the culture and elegance for which Southwest Florida area is noted. Residents and visitors enjoy the warmth of Southwest Florida winters in a relaxed and unhurried environment far removed from the hustle of Florida’s east coast. You’ll be surrounded by mature lush landscaping which demonstrates the utmost level of care our property receives from residents and management. Wireless Internet (Wi-Fi) is available at the Clubhouse, Activity Building, and Recreation Hall area where our pools and spas are located, so you can catch some rays while you catch up on your email! La Casa is a friendly, family community. You will be away from the hustle and bustle except when you want to be part of it. Come for a visit to this self-contained oasis and see for yourself why La Casa is the ultimate destination for both snowbirds and year-round residents!

Key facts

• Screened lanai
• New cabinets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GLASS-ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW SLIDING DOOR
• SCREENED LANAI

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $103 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Glenallen Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #936 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 716 students, 79% FRL); Heron Creek Middle School (math 54% / reading 52%, grade C+, #209 of 571 statewide, top 37%, 902 students, 72% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 42% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 857 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $150k implies a 241% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.84%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-21,996
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-27,215
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 857
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,626 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $913/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$191
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,496

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $145	+0% $103	+5% $60	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-26	-5% $39	+0% $103	+5% $167	+10% $231
Rate	-1.0pp $178	-0.5pp $141	base $103	+0.5pp $64	+1.0pp $24

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $191 · $2,292/yr
• Likely covers: waterinternetlandscapingpool

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-04-20
   price $149,900 3163-char remark

   Show marketing remark (3163 chars)

   Welcome to this enchanting two-bedroom, two-bathroom home, where comfort and style seamlessly intertwine. As you step inside, you are greeted by a spacious 10' x 22' glass-enclosed Florida room, featuring a generous pass-through opening that invites you into the heart of the home—the kitchen. This inviting Florida room flows effortlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a harmonious space for relaxation and entertainment.  The kitchen is a true masterpiece, adorned with elegant new cabinets, stunning granite countertops, and gleaming stainless steel appliances. Its adjacent dining area, enhanced by a new sliding door with built-in blinds, leads to a serene screened lanai, accented with charming shiplap details. This expansive layout is perfect for hosting gatherings with family and friends. The utility room, thoughtfully designed, showcases a washer, dryer, deep sink, workbenches, and ample storage, making everyday tasks a breeze.  Retreat to the primary bedroom, where you’ll find a delightful dressing area complete with a chic new vanity and a spacious walk-in closet. The spa-like primary bathroom boasts a linen chest, a stylish new toilet, and a luxurious walk-in shower. The guest bedroom is equally inviting, featuring a roomy double closet for all your storage needs, while the guest bathroom is equipped with a fresh new vanity, a beautifully tiled tub/shower, and another new toilet.  This exquisite home has been thoughtfully upgraded with a new metal roof, a brand-new carport and shed, fresh paint throughout, a new shiplap ceiling, a newer vapor barrier, a new water heater, and updated plumbing in 2022, complemented by all-new plumbing fixtures.  Embrace the exceptional La Casa lifestyle in this stunning abode, ideally situated near the Clubhouse, Activity Center, and a wealth of amenities. This home is ready for you to create cherished memories in a setting that truly feels like paradise. La Casa boasts 974 home sites nestled among a variety of native trees with spacious common grounds surrounding our eight lakes. La Casa offers the ultimate lifestyle on Florida’s Gulf Coast and is located between Sarasota and Fort Myers. It is convenient for shopping, sightseeing, golfing, fishing, and boating, as well as all the culture and elegance for which Southwest Florida area is noted. Residents and visitors enjoy the warmth of Southwest Florida winters in a relaxed and unhurried environment far removed from the hustle of Florida’s east coast. You’ll be surrounded by mature lush landscaping which demonstrates the utmost level of care our property receives from residents and management. Wireless Internet (Wi-Fi) is available at the Clubhouse, Activity Building, and Recreation Hall area where our pools and spas are located, so you can catch some rays while you catch up on your email! La Casa is a friendly, family community. You will be away from the hustle and bustle except when you want to be part of it. Come for a visit to this self-contained oasis and see for yourself why La Casa is the ultimate destination for both snowbirds and year-round residents!

3. 2025-12-10
   listed $155,000 Active 3163-char remark

   Show marketing remark (3163 chars)

   Welcome to this enchanting two-bedroom, two-bathroom home, where comfort and style seamlessly intertwine. As you step inside, you are greeted by a spacious 10' x 22' glass-enclosed Florida room, featuring a generous pass-through opening that invites you into the heart of the home—the kitchen. This inviting Florida room flows effortlessly into the living and dining areas, creating a harmonious space for relaxation and entertainment.  The kitchen is a true masterpiece, adorned with elegant new cabinets, stunning granite countertops, and gleaming stainless steel appliances. Its adjacent dining area, enhanced by a new sliding door with built-in blinds, leads to a serene screened lanai, accented with charming shiplap details. This expansive layout is perfect for hosting gatherings with family and friends. The utility room, thoughtfully designed, showcases a washer, dryer, deep sink, workbenches, and ample storage, making everyday tasks a breeze.  Retreat to the primary bedroom, where you’ll find a delightful dressing area complete with a chic new vanity and a spacious walk-in closet. The spa-like primary bathroom boasts a linen chest, a stylish new toilet, and a luxurious walk-in shower. The guest bedroom is equally inviting, featuring a roomy double closet for all your storage needs, while the guest bathroom is equipped with a fresh new vanity, a beautifully tiled tub/shower, and another new toilet.  This exquisite home has been thoughtfully upgraded with a new metal roof, a brand-new carport and shed, fresh paint throughout, a new shiplap ceiling, a newer vapor barrier, a new water heater, and updated plumbing in 2022, complemented by all-new plumbing fixtures.  Embrace the exceptional La Casa lifestyle in this stunning abode, ideally situated near the Clubhouse, Activity Center, and a wealth of amenities. This home is ready for you to create cherished memories in a setting that truly feels like paradise. La Casa boasts 974 home sites nestled among a variety of native trees with spacious common grounds surrounding our eight lakes. La Casa offers the ultimate lifestyle on Florida’s Gulf Coast and is located between Sarasota and Fort Myers. It is convenient for shopping, sightseeing, golfing, fishing, and boating, as well as all the culture and elegance for which Southwest Florida area is noted. Residents and visitors enjoy the warmth of Southwest Florida winters in a relaxed and unhurried environment far removed from the hustle of Florida’s east coast. You’ll be surrounded by mature lush landscaping which demonstrates the utmost level of care our property receives from residents and management. Wireless Internet (Wi-Fi) is available at the Clubhouse, Activity Building, and Recreation Hall area where our pools and spas are located, so you can catch some rays while you catch up on your email! La Casa is a friendly, family community. You will be away from the hustle and bustle except when you want to be part of it. Come for a visit to this self-contained oasis and see for yourself why La Casa is the ultimate destination for both snowbirds and year-round residents!

4. 1998-01-29
   soldstatus $43,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,244 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 36.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,517
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$913
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,561
• − Management: −$1,561
• − HOA: −$2,292
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,115
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+241.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $149,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-10 Listed $155,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $43,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $913 · +14.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.