15906 Mimosa Harvest Dr · Crosby, TX 77532

$229,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $120/sqft · 9% below area Est $252k · 9% under $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

Key facts

• Open concept design
• Large island
• Soft close cabinets

Tags

• PRISM FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT DESIGN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE ISLAND
• SOFT CLOSE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $118 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (1.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.8% in Crosby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,121 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,090 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,312
• List price: $229,990
• Delta: -8.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15803 Lone Juniper Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,826 (-4%)	2mo	$280,790	$154	81
15811 Tall Barberry Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-0%)	2mo	$338,613	$177	80
2006 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.29mi	4/3.0	1,861 (-3%)	2mo	$346,077	$186	80
2011 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.29mi	4/2.5	1,861 (-3%)	0mo	$383,332	$206	80
15831 Tall Barberry Ln	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,147 (+12%)	2mo	$362,927	$169	69
15819 Tall Barberry Ln	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	1mo	$274,990	$132	69
15827 Switchgrass Ct	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,147 (+12%)	2mo	$392,881	$183	67
15839 Tall Barberry Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (-9%)	1mo	$249,990	$143	66
15822 Tall Barberry Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	0mo	$373,901	$180	66
2015 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	1mo	$363,166	$175	64
2010 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,079 (+9%)	1mo	$363,010	$175	64
2034 Indigo Ridge Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0	2,147 (+12%)	3mo	$299,900	$140	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-33,099
• Equity at exit: $34,292

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-32,440
• Equity at exit: $19,885

Cash invested: $64,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,128

Max offer price $229,990

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,498
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-04
   price $229,990 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

2. 2026-04-25
   price $224,990 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

3. 2026-04-18
   price $257,990 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

4. 2026-04-18
   status Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

5. 2026-03-30
   status Pending 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

6. 2026-03-30
   price $298,790 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

7. 2026-03-16
   price $261,990 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

8. 2026-03-16
   listed $298,790 Active 846-char remark

   Show marketing remark (846 chars)

   BRAND NEW SINGLE STORY HOME WITH VERSATILE LAYOUT Introducing the Prism floorplan, a thoughtfully designed one story home offering 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and approximately 1,912 square feet of modern living space. The open concept design connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a comfortable flow for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features granite countertops, a large island, and soft close cabinets and drawers, with stainless steel appliances included for added convenience. The home includes a convenient Jack and Jill bath serving the secondary bedrooms, while the private primary suite offers a walk in closet and an en suite bathroom. A covered patio and fully fenced backyard complete this inviting home in Cedar Pointe, which provides a comfortable setting designed for modern living and everyday ease.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,187
• − Management: −$2,187
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$2,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$557
• After-tax cash flow: $1,971/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This brand new single-story home is in excellent condition with modern features and a good layout. It is move-in ready and can be enhanced with minor updates to boost its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters.
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home more inviting and visually appealing.
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home more inviting and visually appealing. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Modernizes the home and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances energy efficiency and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Crosby

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1121
• US rank: #19783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,780
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $224,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $257,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $298,790 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $261,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $298,790 HARMLS