9404 Mesa · Lucerne Valley, CA 92356

$242,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1965 0.44 ac lot Est $263k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0

Listing remarks

Single family featuring 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, and a approximately 1,152 sq ft of living space on a spacious 19,200 sq ft lot. Built in 1965, the home offers a functional layout, solar panels, AC, and plenty of outdoor space.

Key facts

• Outdoor space
• Solar panels
• 0.44 acre lot

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Single-family property (1 unit); No common walls
• HOA & community: Rural community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public/District water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story house; Front entry; No attached accessory dwelling unit
• Construction: Year built per public records
• Exterior features: House; Front yard; Back yard; No pool; Solar panels

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level home; All bedrooms on the main floor; Main level has 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom; Central cooling; Has a view
• Laundry & utility: Separate laundry room; Gas and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $242k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (21.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (21.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#1,358 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Lucerne Valley Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,155 of 1,400 in CA (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucerne Valley Elementary (608 students, 91% FRL); Lucerne Valley Middle (137 students, 92% FRL); Lucerne Valley High (274 students, 90% FRL).
• Market conditions: 375 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,296 (21.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.85%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,656
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32320 Sutter Rd	0.21mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,142 (-1%)	4mo	$275,000	$241	80
9405 Mesa Rd	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	13mo	$230,000	$228	61
31979 Foothill Rd	0.66mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,092 (-5%)	23mo	$175,000	$160	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.79×
• Total profit: $121,564
• Equity at exit: $218,013

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.40×
• Total profit: $366,114
• Equity at exit: $470,153

Cash invested: $67,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92356

• Home prices YoY: 20.6%
• Active inventory: 375
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,269
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$302 /mo · $3,630/yr
• Insurance: −$101
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,117

Max offer price $218,679

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6	-5% $-78	+0% $-161	+5% $-245	+10% $-328
Rent	-10% $-312	-5% $-237	+0% $-161	+5% $-86	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-100	base $-161	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,500
• Closing costs: $7,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $242,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $242,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $242,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $242,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $242,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $242,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $242,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $242,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $242,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $242,000 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $242,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 226-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $242,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,556
• − Property taxes: −$3,630
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,836
• − Management: −$1,836
• − Depreciation: −$7,040
• Taxable loss: −$6,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-457/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucerne Valley Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600015
• Math proficiency: 22% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $28,341
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #12969
• State rank: #1155 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lucerne Valley

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #1358
• US rank: #26994

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lucerne Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,665

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 17% Asian 3% Black 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 26% Korean 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 75.34%
• Current HPI: 440.6077
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+476.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $242,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listed $269,999 CRMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $259,999 CRMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $279,999 CRMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $330,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-14 Listed $350,000 CRMLS
• 2025-03-03 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2023-09-11 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2023-09-11 Sold (MLS) $265,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-08 Price Changed $265,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-01 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-08-01 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-07-22 Price Changed $279,999 CRMLS
• 2023-06-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-05-12 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-05-10 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-04-28 Coming Soon $280,000 CRMLS
• 1991-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records
• 1987-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · -18.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.