128 Wembley Dr · Archer Lodge, NC 27527

$245,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,818 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2015 2,178 sqft lot Est $316k · 23% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wooded views, a lake view from the patio, and priced to move --this 3BR/2.5BA townhome in exclusive Flowers Plantation delivers space, light, and opportunity. The main level features an open layout with a spacious living area, custom built-in shelving, and a fireplace, flowing into the kitchen and dining nook--all oriented toward the private rear views. The kitchen showcases granite countertops and thoughtfully selected finishes, along with custom adjustable blinds that allow you to control natural light and privacy throughout the day--especially beautiful in the afternoon. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, two baths and a layout that just makes sense. A convenient half bath is located on the main level. Recent updates include brand new carpet (2026) and a recently serviced HVAC system with capacitor replaced (April 2026). Owned by the original owner, the home has been consistently maintained over time. Enjoy nearby trails, lake access, and a quiet setting, all while being conveniently located close to restaurants, gyms, and daily essentials. Priced to offer immediate value, this is a strong opportunity for buyers looking to step in and make it their own.

Key facts

• $30 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,713; Lot around 0.05 acres (approx. 2,178 sq ft); County: Johnston
• HOA & community: Community association (Encore Properties); Annual association fee of $360; Association fees include insurance and grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 total parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer; Community water; Electric service
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Entry level information not specified; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as a townhouse
• Exterior features: Private maintained road; PUD zoning

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace in family room; Carpet and hardwood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-203/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $242k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.1% in Archer Lodge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#263 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Archer Lodge Middle (math 43% / reading 47%, grade D, #160 of 475 statewide, top 35%, 1,219 students, 40% FRL); Corinth Holders High (math 50% / reading 61%, grade C, #265 of 535 statewide, top 50%, 2,219 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,568 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $316,332
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
68 Radcliffe Ct	0.08mi	3/2.5	2,028 (+12%)	2mo	$294,900	$145	76
118 Wembley Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,903 (+5%)	22mo	$299,990	$158	72
114 Wembley Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,959 (+8%)	16mo	$255,000	$130	72
256 Wembley Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,704 (-6%)	14mo	$300,000	$176	71
78 Radcliffe Ct	0.10mi	3/3.0	2,006 (+10%)	7mo	$350,000	$174	70
63 Radcliffe Ct	0.06mi	3/3.0	2,031 (+12%)	11mo	$355,000	$175	67
80 Radcliffe Ct	0.10mi	3/3.0	2,069 (+14%)	14mo	$365,000	$176	59
92 Radcliffe Ct	0.13mi	3/3.0	2,061 (+13%)	14mo	$355,000	$172	58
123 Radcliffe Ct	0.19mi	3/3.0	2,059 (+13%)	14mo	$360,000	$175	56
112 Radcliffe Ct	0.17mi	3/3.0	2,064 (+14%)	19mo	$355,000	$172	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-46,633
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-64,631
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27527

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,007

Max offer price $242,012

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
285 Denby Cir Clayton, NC	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	23d	1	0.15mi
264 Wembley Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1727	$2,055	$1.19	23d	1	0.17mi
60 Hocutt Farm Dr Clayton, NC	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,110	$1.08	2d	1	0.20mi
200 Willowbrook Cir Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,870	$0.99	3d	1	0.32mi
113 Marsh Harbor St Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1675	$1,800	$1.07	23d	1	0.86mi
26 Bull River St Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1675	$1,800	$1.07	4d	1	0.88mi
14 Bull River St Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1675	$1,825	$1.09	17d	1	0.88mi
157 Brookhaven Dr Clayton, NC	4.0	2.5	1751	$1,690	$0.97	4d	1	1.39mi
137 Brookhaven Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1810	$1,930	$1.07	12d	1	1.41mi
70 Brookhaven Dr Clayton, NC	3.0	2.5	1674	$2,020	$1.21	3d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listing id $245,000 Pending 3 DOM
2. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 1177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Wooded views, a lake view from the patio, and priced to move --this 3BR/2.5BA townhome in exclusive Flowers Plantation delivers space, light, and opportunity. The main level features an open layout with a spacious living area, custom built-in shelving, and a fireplace, flowing into the kitchen and dining nook--all oriented toward the private rear views. The kitchen showcases granite countertops and thoughtfully selected finishes, along with custom adjustable blinds that allow you to control natural light and privacy throughout the day--especially beautiful in the afternoon. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, two baths and a layout that just makes sense. A convenient half bath is located on the main level. Recent updates include brand new carpet (2026) and a recently serviced HVAC system with capacitor replaced (April 2026). Owned by the original owner, the home has been consistently maintained over time. Enjoy nearby trails, lake access, and a quiet setting, all while being conveniently located close to restaurants, gyms, and daily essentials. Priced to offer immediate value, this is a strong opportunity for buyers looking to step in and make it their own.

3. 2026-05-10
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Wooded views, a lake view from the patio, and priced to move --this 3BR/2.5BA townhome in exclusive Flowers Plantation delivers space, light, and opportunity. The main level features an open layout with a spacious living area, custom built-in shelving, and a fireplace, flowing into the kitchen and dining nook--all oriented toward the private rear views. The kitchen showcases granite countertops and thoughtfully selected finishes, along with custom adjustable blinds that allow you to control natural light and privacy throughout the day--especially beautiful in the afternoon. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, two baths and a layout that just makes sense. A convenient half bath is located on the main level. Recent updates include brand new carpet (2026) and a recently serviced HVAC system with capacitor replaced (April 2026). Owned by the original owner, the home has been consistently maintained over time. Enjoy nearby trails, lake access, and a quiet setting, all while being conveniently located close to restaurants, gyms, and daily essentials. Priced to offer immediate value, this is a strong opportunity for buyers looking to step in and make it their own.

4. 2026-05-07
   listed $245,000 Active 1177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Wooded views, a lake view from the patio, and priced to move --this 3BR/2.5BA townhome in exclusive Flowers Plantation delivers space, light, and opportunity. The main level features an open layout with a spacious living area, custom built-in shelving, and a fireplace, flowing into the kitchen and dining nook--all oriented toward the private rear views. The kitchen showcases granite countertops and thoughtfully selected finishes, along with custom adjustable blinds that allow you to control natural light and privacy throughout the day--especially beautiful in the afternoon. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, two baths and a layout that just makes sense. A convenient half bath is located on the main level. Recent updates include brand new carpet (2026) and a recently serviced HVAC system with capacitor replaced (April 2026). Owned by the original owner, the home has been consistently maintained over time. Enjoy nearby trails, lake access, and a quiet setting, all while being conveniently located close to restaurants, gyms, and daily essentials. Priced to offer immediate value, this is a strong opportunity for buyers looking to step in and make it their own.

5. 2026-05-07
   listed $245,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1177 chars)

   Wooded views, a lake view from the patio, and priced to move --this 3BR/2.5BA townhome in exclusive Flowers Plantation delivers space, light, and opportunity. The main level features an open layout with a spacious living area, custom built-in shelving, and a fireplace, flowing into the kitchen and dining nook--all oriented toward the private rear views. The kitchen showcases granite countertops and thoughtfully selected finishes, along with custom adjustable blinds that allow you to control natural light and privacy throughout the day--especially beautiful in the afternoon. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, two baths and a layout that just makes sense. A convenient half bath is located on the main level. Recent updates include brand new carpet (2026) and a recently serviced HVAC system with capacitor replaced (April 2026). Owned by the original owner, the home has been consistently maintained over time. Enjoy nearby trails, lake access, and a quiet setting, all while being conveniently located close to restaurants, gyms, and daily essentials. Priced to offer immediate value, this is a strong opportunity for buyers looking to step in and make it their own.

6. 2026-04-30
   historical
7. 2026-04-13
   price $289,900
8. 2026-03-13
   price $294,900
9. 2026-01-14
   listed $295,000 Active
10. 2026-01-06
    historical
11. 2017-01-13
    historical
12. 2016-12-13
    price $189,500
13. 2016-12-06
    price $189,600
14. 2016-11-30
    price $189,700
15. 2016-11-22
    price $189,800
16. 2016-07-16
    listed $189,900 Active
17. 2014-03-28
    soldstatus $1,200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,828
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$4,445
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,067
• After-tax cash flow: $864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Archer Lodge

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #263
• US rank: #11500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,256
• Household income: $115,035
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 603.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.33%
• Current HPI: 234.8479
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.35%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-79.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $245,000 TMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $245,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $289,900 TMLS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $294,900 TMLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $295,000 TMLS
• 2026-01-06 Coming Soon — TMLS
• 2017-01-13 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2016-12-13 Price Changed $189,500 TMLS
• 2016-12-06 Price Changed $189,600 TMLS
• 2016-11-30 Price Changed $189,700 TMLS
• 2016-11-22 Price Changed $189,800 TMLS
• 2016-07-16 Listed $189,900 TMLS
• 2014-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $1,200,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,025 · +20.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.