3202 NE 30th Ct · Ocala, FL 34479

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,316 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1985 0.35 ac lot Est $241k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3-bedroom, 2-bath home in the established Carol Estates neighborhood of NE Ocala. Features a spacious family room with a wood-burning fireplace and a functional layout The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space. The screened in porch overlooks a spacious and well landscaped yard. The backyard is fully fenced with mature trees, a deck area, and storage sheds. Additional features include a single-car garage and convenient access to shopping and dining.

Key facts

• Deck area
• Screened in porch
• Well landscaped yard

Tags

• WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• SCREENED IN PORCH
• WELL LANDSCAPED YARD
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• MATURE TREES
• DECK AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $87 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (16.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (16.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.1% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ocala Springs Elementary School (math 56% / reading 45%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 690 students, 67% FRL); Fort King Middle School (math 37% / reading 35%, grade F, #410 of 571 statewide, top 72%, 1,092 students, 71% FRL); Vanguard High School (math 22% / reading 48%, grade F, #379 of 667 statewide, top 58%, 1,661 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 66% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 173 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $215k implies a 244% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,635 (16.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.73%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,828
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3202 NE 30th Ct	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,316 (0%)	1mo	$212,000	$161	99
3115 NE 36th Pl	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,428 (+8%)	2mo	$222,000	$155	67
3155 NE 38th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-4%)	9mo	$235,530	$186	65
4025 NE 29th Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-1%)	9mo	$240,000	$185	62
3226 NE 35th Pl	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	12mo	$245,000	$170	62
3125 NE 38th St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+8%)	4mo	$250,500	$175	61
3601 NE 24th Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-1%)	12mo	$199,900	$153	60
3781 NE 32nd Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+8%)	5mo	$222,000	$155	60
3537 NE 32nd Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-3%)	19mo	$248,000	$194	57
2802 NE 25th Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,471 (+12%)	1mo	$285,000	$194	56
3183 NE 35th Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+9%)	13mo	$263,900	$183	52
4055 NE 29th Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-5%)	16mo	$239,900	$192	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-29,354
• Equity at exit: $32,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-18,719
• Equity at exit: $18,581

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34479

• Home prices YoY: -31.0%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,293/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $87

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,676

Max offer price $214,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $209	-5% $148	+0% $87	+5% $26	+10% $-35
Rent	-10% $-54	-5% $16	+0% $87	+5% $158	+10% $228
Rate	-1.0pp $195	-0.5pp $142	base $87	+0.5pp $31	+1.0pp $-25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3656 NE 30th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	1853	$2,150	$1.16	15d	1	0.30mi
3380 NE 44th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	23d	1	0.90mi
2855 NE 20th Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,875	$1.25	15d	1	0.92mi
2122 NE 28th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1328	$2,100	$1.58	15d	1	0.94mi
3651 NE 20th Pl Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1178	$1,350	$1.15	23d	1	1.03mi
2305 NE 40th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$1,425	$1.28	15d	1	1.07mi
1725 NE 36th Ave Ocala, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$1,600	$1.35	15d	5	1.11mi
3219 NE 16th Ct Unit 3219 Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,700	$1.42	15d	1	1.27mi
NE 21st St Ocala, FL	2.0	1.5	1178	$1,199	$1.02	23d	1	1.38mi
1312 NE 33rd Ave Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,499	$1.58	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $214,900 Active
3. 1992-07-01
   soldstatus $62,500
4. 1985-10-01
   soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,293 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$491/yr (+$41/mo · 38.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,436
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$1,293
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,715
• − Management: −$1,715
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$2,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$636
• After-tax cash flow: $1,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,264
• Household income: $54,283
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 664.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 15% Black 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Estonian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.70%
• Current HPI: 248.7063
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+246.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $214,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1985-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,293 · +328.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.