4401 Goshen Lake Dr · Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA 30906

$190,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,808 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1983 0.26 ac lot $105/sqft · 19% below area Est $234k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this inviting 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home located in a well-established community. Featuring a brand-new roof and new washer and dryer included, several key updates have already been completed. The home offers a functional layout with great natural light and an enclosed porch, providing additional space to relax or entertain year-round. This property is a great fit for an investor looking for a cash flip or a buyer seeking an affordable home with the opportunity to update and make it their own. With solid structure and plenty of potential, this is a chance to add value and customize to your style. Property sold AS IS! Schedule your showing today and explore the possibilities!

Key facts

• Great natural light
• New washer and dryer
• Brand-new roof

Tags

• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEW WASHER AND DRYER
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• GREAT NATURAL LIGHT
• SOLID STRUCTURE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse; Access to golf course

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Water connected; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One-level / one story; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.26-acre lot; Paved road access
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch/patio; Landscaped lot; Has a view; Street lights in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in electric oven; Cooktop
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Pantry; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $130 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $182k (4.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $182k (4.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.3% in Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Richmond County (urban): math 12% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #154 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Goshen Elementary School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #878 of 1,228 statewide, top 75%, 448 students, 98% FRL); Pine Hill Middle School (math 5% / reading 19%, grade F, #417 of 470 statewide, top 90%, 582 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 72% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 367 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 561 units permitted in Richmond County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,819/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 3363% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richmond County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $123k; list at $190k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,947 (4.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.94%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,889
• List price: $190,000
• Delta: -18.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4409 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,758 (-3%)	4mo	$222,000	$126	90
4417 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-1%)	10mo	$229,000	$128	85
3904 Goshen Ln	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,724 (-5%)	4mo	$239,900	$139	82
4404 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,907 (+6%)	14mo	$205,000	$107	78
3905 N Goshen Ln	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,560 (-14%)	10mo	$233,650	$150	63
4405 S Goshen Lake Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,995 (+10%)	24mo	$249,999	$125	62
1647 Goshen Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,659 (-8%)	15mo	$239,900	$145	57
1573 Oglethorpe Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (+4%)	2mo	$272,500	$144	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-27,795
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-34,023
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30906

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 367
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,819 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,778/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$382
• Net cashflow: $130

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,654

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $184	+0% $130	+5% $77	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $58	+0% $130	+5% $202	+10% $274
Rate	-1.0pp $226	-0.5pp $179	base $130	+0.5pp $81	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4210 Valencia Ln Augusta, GA	4.0	2.5	1900	$1,795	$0.94	15d	1	0.47mi
4376 E Barcelona Way Unit 00 4404 Augusta, GA	4.0	2.5	1696	$1,795	$1.06	24d	1	0.56mi
1233 Paramount Ct Hephzibah, GA	4.0	2.5	2560	$2,300	$0.90	15d	1	0.71mi
1015 Country Place Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,695	$1.05	45d	1	1.16mi
1015 Country Place Dr Augusta, GA	3.0	2.0	1615	$1,650	$1.02	24d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $190,000 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $190,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-05-11
   historical
8. 2026-04-20
   listed $190,000 Active
9. 2026-04-20
   listed $190,000 Active 693-char remark
10. 2016-09-22
    soldstatus $123,251

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,778 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,778 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,834
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$2,778
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,747
• − Management: −$1,747
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$1,558
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$374
• After-tax cash flow: $1,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richmond County
• NCES district ID: 1304380
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,069
• Composite: 13.43/100
• National rank: #9524
• State rank: #154 of 174 in GA

Livability — Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Augusta-Richmond County consolidated government (balance), GA
• County: Richmond County · 190,917 people
• City population: 154,035
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• Population (ZIP): 60,423
• Household income: $45,999
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3363.0

Population outlook (Richmond County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 200,753 people
• By 2030: 200,232 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 196,813 · -2.0%
• By 2050: 190,347 · -5.2%
• By 2075: 172,496 · -14.1%
• By 2100: 146,284 · -27.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 64% White 27% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richmond

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+36.1) · D 67.8% · R 31.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.3pp toward D · 2008: 31.8pp · 2024: 36.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+36.1 2020: D+37.2 2016: D+32.4 2012: D+33.8 2008: D+31.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.99%
• Current HPI: 213.5733
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+54.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $190,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $190,000 Hive MLS
• 2016-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $123,251 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,778 · +21.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.