14310 Eastern Redbud Ln · Houston, TX 77044

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,905 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2003 8,137 sqft lot $152/sqft · at area comps Est $303k · at est. $82/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained single-story home, featuring three spacious bedrooms and two fully renovated bathrooms. The living area is spacious and flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen has a gas cooktop, granite countertops, and is complemented by a separate breakfast nook. A private dining room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for entertaining. The backyard offers a generous green space with a patio and ample privacy, ideal for outdoor gatherings. Included with the home is a portable gas generator with cord, easily connected to an outlet at the electrical panel for convenience. Storm protection is ready with wood coverings and clips stored in the garage. Located on a desirable corner lot within the sought-after Summerwood master-planned community, this home offers easy access to Beltway 8, I-59, and IAH airport. Lovingly cared for by the original owners, this property truly reflects pride of ownership.

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Private dining room
• Storm protection

Tags

• GAS COOKTOP
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PRIVATE DINING ROOM
• GENEROUS GREEN SPACE
• PORTABLE GAS GENERATOR
• STORM PROTECTION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-374 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (22.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 337 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,936 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.55%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,367
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -4.74%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13310 White Ibis Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-9%)	16mo	$310,000	$179	62
14514 Red Tailed Hawk Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	2,008 (+5%)	23mo	$314,900	$157	58
14614 Oxwick Cir	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (+12%)	4mo	$304,999	$143	58
13614 Brighton Park Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	2,177 (+14%)	11mo	$289,900	$133	44
14622 Kings Head Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,101 (+10%)	12mo	$315,000	$150	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-57,835
• Equity at exit: $61,721

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-83,543
• Equity at exit: $58,186

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,388 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$543 /mo · $6,512/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$82
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,862

Max offer price $222,936

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-210	-5% $-292	+0% $-374	+5% $-456	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-468	+0% $-374	+5% $-280	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-228	-0.5pp $-300	base $-374	+0.5pp $-449	+1.0pp $-525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14407 Jessica Falls Cir Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2554	$2,600	$1.02	45d	1	0.24mi
13606 Caney Springs Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2502	$2,415	$0.97	22d	1	0.57mi
14700 Chapman Woods Xing Unit 1 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1758	$1,340	$0.76	2d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $82 · $984/yr
• Likely covers: gaselectric

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 56 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    listed $299,000 Active 935-char remark

    Show marketing remark (935 chars)

    Beautifully maintained single-story home, featuring three spacious bedrooms and two fully renovated bathrooms. The living area is spacious and flows seamlessly into the kitchen. The kitchen has a gas cooktop, granite countertops, and is complemented by a separate breakfast nook. A private dining room is situated at the front of the home, perfect for entertaining. The backyard offers a generous green space with a patio and ample privacy, ideal for outdoor gatherings. Included with the home is a portable gas generator with cord, easily connected to an outlet at the electrical panel for convenience. Storm protection is ready with wood coverings and clips stored in the garage. Located on a desirable corner lot within the sought-after Summerwood master-planned community, this home offers easy access to Beltway 8, I-59, and IAH airport. Lovingly cared for by the original owners, this property truly reflects pride of ownership.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,512 · $543/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,512 · $543/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,659
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$6,512
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,293
• − Management: −$2,293
• − HOA: −$984
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$9,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,271
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listed $299,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,512 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.