12291 Acacia Rdg · San Antonio, TX 78245

$206,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,354 sqft · Townhouse · 15 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location at the front of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms just off the main living areas, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $206,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family property (new construction, spec)
• Exterior features: Address: 12291 Acacia Rdg, San Antonio, TX 78245

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec new-construction home (Gerson plan); Living area of 1,354

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $207k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-380/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Medina Valley ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #148 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Potranco El (math 50% / reading 51%, grade D+, #833 of 4,322 statewide, top 20%, 847 students, 47% FRL); Medina Valley Middle (math 47% / reading 49%, grade C-, #400 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 1,029 students, 62% FRL); Medina Valley H S (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,147 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.0%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,073 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-40,721
• Equity at exit: $30,864

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-58,001
• Equity at exit: $17,897

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78245

• Home prices YoY: -18.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$259 /mo · $3,105/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,811

Max offer price $202,420

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $111	-5% $40	+0% $-32	+5% $-103	+10% $-175
Rent	-10% $-172	-5% $-102	+0% $-32	+5% $38	+10% $108
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $21	base $-32	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-140

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14618 Fowler Rdg San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,776	$1.40	16d	1	0.03mi
2840 Tengyc Bow San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,775	$1.04	46d	1	0.25mi
3111 Lamoka Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1509	$1,600	$1.06	45d	1	0.40mi
3111 Lamoka Lk San Antonio, TX	3.0	3.0	1508	$1,600	$1.06	4d	1	0.40mi
3127 Keuka Park Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1698	$1,950	$1.15	25d	1	0.45mi
2917 Wentwood Run San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,825	$1.11	18d	1	0.54mi
3011 Lindenwood Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$1,955	$1.15	25d	1	0.54mi
3203 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,750	$1.24	0d	1	0.60mi
3232 Onion Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$1,495	$1.28	45d	1	0.66mi
11323 Pink Star San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1695	$1,675	$0.99	0d	1	0.66mi
3303 Mission Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,850	$1.24	45d	1	0.70mi
12126 Sampson Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,895	$1.27	25d	1	0.72mi
11902 Mulberry Crk San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,647	$1.17	45d	1	0.75mi
12141 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1396	$1,595	$1.14	5d	1	0.75mi
12118 Pease Riv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,850	$1.20	14d	1	0.76mi
12010 Mulberry Crk Unit NA San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1296	$1,850	$1.43	16d	1	0.76mi
11348 Top Hat San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,775	$1.07	45d	1	0.77mi
11328 Silver Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1691	$1,870	$1.11	45d	1	0.85mi
11215 Aristides San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,925	$1.27	6d	1	1.04mi
10943 Livewater Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$1,900	$1.05	25d	1	1.33mi
10919 Livewater Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1812	$1,595	$0.88	45d	1	1.37mi
4546 Longhorn Crst San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,200	$1.28	0d	1	1.39mi
1526 Alaskan Wolf San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1099	$1,400	$1.27	5d	1	1.42mi
2422 Buffalo Pass Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	45d	1	1.44mi
11727 Black Rose San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$1,595	$1.21	0d	1	1.48mi
10714 Ranchland Fox San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1844	$1,800	$0.98	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $206,999 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $206,999 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $206,999 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $206,999 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $206,999 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $206,999 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $206,999 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $206,999 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 401-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $206,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,249
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$3,105
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$3,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$938
• After-tax cash flow: $558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior. It has a good curb appeal and is ready for a new owner to move in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Medina Valley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830060
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,596
• Composite: 44.2/100
• National rank: #2851
• State rank: #148 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 96,015
• Household income: $90,029
• Rent vs Own: 31.3% rent · 68.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2466.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 27% White 20% Black 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.31%
• Current HPI: 234.7931
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.02%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B