129&131 N Dunbar Ln · Emory, TX 75440

$149,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 240 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 183 Days on market

Built 1975 0.47 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two Tenant Occupied Homes with outstanding Leases in place. Do NOT Disturb Tenants. No showings until under contract and proof of funds required.

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• 8 parking spots
• Built 1975

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $114 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.2% in Emory — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#529 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rains ISD (rural): math 22% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #697 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 180 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Rains County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.27%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,032
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,561
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75440

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,358 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,321/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,213

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $157	+0% $114	+5% $72	+10% $30
Rent	-10% $7	-5% $61	+0% $114	+5% $168	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $190	-0.5pp $153	base $114	+0.5pp $76	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 163 DOM
17. 2025-12-22
    historical
18. 2025-12-18
    listed $149,900 Active 145-char remark

    Show marketing remark (145 chars)

    Two Tenant Occupied Homes with outstanding Leases in place. Do NOT Disturb Tenants. No showings until under contract and proof of funds required.

19. 2025-12-09
    listed $149,900 Active
20. 2025-02-05
    historical
21. 2024-02-05
    listed $175,000 Active
22. 2023-06-30
    historical
23. 2023-06-23
    status Active
24. 2023-06-14
    status Pending
25. 2023-04-04
    price $150,000
26. 2023-04-03
    price $130,000
27. 2023-04-03
    status Active
28. 2023-03-27
    historical Active Option Contract
29. 2022-10-18
    listed $150,000 Active
30. 2009-02-26
    soldstatus
31. 2006-05-30
    soldstatus
32. 2004-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,321 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,422/yr (+$119/mo · 107.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,321
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$1,137
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$273
• After-tax cash flow: $1,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rains ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836360
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $45,836
• Composite: 22.46/100
• National rank: #8106
• State rank: #697 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emory

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #10352

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Emory, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,480

Population outlook (Rains County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,516 people
• By 2030: 11,610 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 11,622 · +0.9%
• By 2050: 11,329 · -1.6%
• By 2075: 10,390 · -9.8%
• By 2100: 8,809 · -23.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rains

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.9) · D 13.3% · R 86.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.5pp · 2024: -72.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.9 2020: R+71.2 2016: R+71.3 2012: R+61.8 2008: R+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.08%
• Current HPI: 208.6245
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-22 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-05 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-06-23 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-03 Price Changed $130,000 NTREIS
• 2023-04-03 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2023-03-27 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-10-18 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2009-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,321 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.