313 Evergreen St · Harrisburg, PA 17104

$75,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 1904 436 sqft lot $54/sqft · at area comps Est $67k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Built 1904
• Listed 100 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.2% vs local median 6.7% in Harrisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#107 in PA, #826 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D, crime F.
• Harrisburg City SD (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #535 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 69 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,030/mo this rent would consume 52% of the median local household income ($47k/yr) (locally 1166% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1904 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1904 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.78%
• DSCR: 3.84
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,789
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 12.29%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 64.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $61,905
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.52×
• Total profit: $158,004
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17104

• Home prices YoY: -6.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 69
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $1,116

Break-even live

Break-even rent $618

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 40%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,159	-5% $1,137	+0% $1,116	+5% $1,095	+10% $1,074
Rent	-10% $956	-5% $1,036	+0% $1,116	+5% $1,196	+10% $1,276
Rate	-1.0pp $1,154	-0.5pp $1,135	base $1,116	+0.5pp $1,097	+1.0pp $1,077

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1414 Berryhill St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	2.0	1786	$1,700	$0.95	24d	1	0.22mi
1207 Market St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.5	1423	$1,995	$1.40	44d	1	0.32mi
1610 Hunter St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0	1776	$1,450	$0.82	24d	1	0.34mi
29 S 15th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	1.0	1285	$1,895	$1.47	24d	1	0.36mi
301 Chestnut St Harrisburg, PA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1437	$2,600	$1.81	44d	1	0.51mi
301 Chestnut St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0–2.5	1437	$3,000	$2.09	15d	10	0.51mi
66 N 17th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	2.0	1845	$2,195	$1.19	44d	1	0.59mi
111 N 17th St Harrisburg, PA	5.0	1.0	1800	$1,850	$1.03	15d	1	0.69mi
1202 Penn St Harrisburg, PA	4.0	1.0	1706	$1,495	$0.88	44d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $75,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $75,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-03-06
    listed $75,000 Active
14. 2026-01-31
    historical
15. 2025-09-24
    listed $90,000 Active
16. 2023-05-19
    soldstatus $100,000
17. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus $15,000
18. 2020-11-16
    soldstatus $115,000
19. 2013-04-28
    historical
20. 2011-11-28
    listed $22,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $972 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$213/yr (+$18/mo · 28.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,364
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $12,948
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,107
• After-tax cash flow: $10,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrisburg City SD
• NCES district ID: 4211580
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $33,432
• Composite: 7.6/100
• National rank: #9945
• State rank: #535 of 539 in PA

Livability — Harrisburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #826

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harrisburg, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• City population: 184,296
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 18,541
• Household income: $46,510
• Rent vs Own: 54.4% rent · 45.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1166.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 44% Hispanic / Latino 29% White 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 21% Dominican 6%
• Common ancestry: Polish 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.83%
• Current HPI: 340.2808
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.43%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+240.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $75,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-24 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2013-04-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2011-11-28 Listed $22,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $760 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.