Juniper End Unit Plan · Garner, NC 27603

$285,985

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,564 sqft · Townhouse · 444 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Juniper townhome combines all the amenities of single-family living with total convenience. The main level is highlighted by a gourmet kitchen that's open to the living area so you'll never miss a moment. Choose the optional island for more workspace. A dining area provides room for entertaining or cozy evenings at home. Upstairs, three large bedrooms offer plenty of closet space and a generous hall bath. The luxury owner's suite is a quiet retreat with its own full bath and huge walk-in closet. The lower level provides plenty of storage space. Discover all The Juniper has to offer.

Key facts

• Large bedrooms
• Gourmet kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• OPTIONAL ISLAND
• DINING AREA
• LARGE BEDROOMS
• GENEROUS HALL BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address marketed as Juniper End Unit Plan, Raleigh, NC 27603; Status: Active
• Financial info: Listed as a new construction plan
• HOA & community:

Exterior

• Parking: 1 parking space
• Security:
• Utilities: Central air (listed under cooling)
• Home design: End unit plan (Juniper End Unit)
• Construction:
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1564

Interior

• Kitchen:
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring:
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open living area
• Laundry & utility:

🏗️ New construction. The $285,985 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $304,980.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (16.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (16.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.3% in Garner — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#35 in NC, #3,421 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, commute A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities D, crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vandora Springs Elementary (math 27% / reading 38%, grade F, #897 of 1,410 statewide, top 64%, 548 students, 72% FRL); North Garner Middle (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #299 of 475 statewide, top 64%, 975 students, 57% FRL); Garner High (math 32% / reading 56%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 1,683 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 30% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 37% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 493 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 444 days — a 12% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $240,212 (16.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 444 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.95%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $304,980
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
328 Grand Silo Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,564 (0%)	3mo	$271,390	$174	93
137 Sunny Acres Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,564 (0%)	12mo	$298,915	$191	89
290 Grand Silo Rd	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,564 (0%)	9mo	$284,990	$182	88
648 Pasture Ridge Rd	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+4%)	0mo	$317,255	$195	88
252 Grand Silo Rd	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,564 (0%)	11mo	$305,301	$195	86
1309 Rollman Farm Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+4%)	2mo	$321,075	$197	84
1333 Rollman Farm Rd	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,628 (+4%)	4mo	$307,125	$189	83
1328 Rollman Farm Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,630 (+4%)	5mo	$316,580	$194	81
1408 Rollman Farm Rd	0.20mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+7%)	16mo	$339,755	$203	66
1400 Rollman Farm Rd	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,674 (+7%)	17mo	$353,740	$211	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-66,118
• Equity at exit: $45,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-88,052
• Equity at exit: $26,369

Cash invested: $85,394 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27603

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 493
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,668

Max offer price $274,597

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1	-5% $-105	+0% $-210	+5% $-315	+10% $-421
Rent	-10% $-400	-5% $-305	+0% $-210	+5% $-115	+10% $-20
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-132	base $-210	+0.5pp $-289	+1.0pp $-369

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,245
• Closing costs: $9,149
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Central Townes Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	3.0	1672	$1,925	$1.15	25d	1	1.27mi
101 Decatur Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5–3.0	2012	$2,605	$1.29	3d	17	1.29mi
1517 Wiljohn Rd Garner, NC	3.0	2.0	1688	$3,000	$1.78	25d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $285,985 Active 444 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,985 Active 441 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,985 Active 440 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,985 Active 439 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,985 Active 438 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,985 Active 436 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,985 Active 435 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,985 Active 432 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $285,985 Active 431 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,985 Active 430 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,985 Active 427 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,985 Active 426 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,985 Active 425 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,985 Active 424 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,985 Active 423 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,825
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,084
• − Property taxes: −$4,575
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − Depreciation: −$8,872
• Taxable loss: −$7,842
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,882
• After-tax cash flow: $-638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Garner

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #3421

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A- Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garner, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 55,242
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 53,972
• Household income: $90,484
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 17% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -132.00%
• Current HPI: 243.2963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B