4445 Wilson Rd · Groves, TX 77619

$68,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1962 10,454 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY in the heart of Groves and located within the highly sought-after Port Neches-Groves Independent School District! This property is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. Featuring a great location and endless possibilities, this home could make an excellent investment property, rental, flip, or future family home. Whether you're an investor, renovator, or buyer looking for your next project, this is your chance to create something special. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and schools. Don't miss the opportunity to transform this property into something truly beautiful — call today to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• Dining
• Schools
• Local shopping

Tags

• LOCAL SHOPPING
• DINING
• SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home
• Construction: Asbestos construction materials
• Exterior features: Chain-link fencing; Composition roof; Workshop (other structure); Publicly maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop, Dishwasher, Refrigerator, Microwave, Oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cooktop, Dishwasher, Refrigerator, Microwave, Oven; Carpet and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $818 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $68k).
• Cap rate 20.6% vs local median 4.0% in Groves — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#315 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Port Neches-Groves ISD (suburban): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #260 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 92 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $474 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.18%
• DSCR: 3.28
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,185
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4626 Harrison Ave	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+0%)	19mo	$209,900	$154	62
4625 Cleveland Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,353 (-0%)	10mo	$199,500	$147	58
6438 Washington St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,334 (-2%)	2mo	$161,900	$121	56
3817 Stuart Ave	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,188 (-12%)	4mo	$135,000	$114	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.14×
• Total profit: $41,022
• Equity at exit: $10,214

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.37×
• Total profit: $102,904
• Equity at exit: $5,923

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77619

• Active inventory: 92
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $818

Break-even live

Break-even rent $599

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $865	-5% $842	+0% $818	+5% $794	+10% $771
Rent	-10% $689	-5% $753	+0% $818	+5% $883	+10% $947
Rate	-1.0pp $852	-0.5pp $835	base $818	+0.5pp $800	+1.0pp $782

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4700 Beaumont Ave Groves, TX	2.0	2.0	1685	$1,550	$0.92	24d	1	0.41mi
5431 Marion Ave Groves, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	0.92mi
5989 32nd St Groves, TX	2.0	1.0	1074	$1,400	$1.30	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   remarks 690-char remark
2. 2026-06-16
   listing id $68,500 Pending 3 DOM
3. 2026-05-24
   listed $68,500 Active
4. 2026-05-21
   listed $68,500 Active 696-char remark

   Show marketing remark (696 chars)

   INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY in the heart of Groves and located within the highly sought-after Port Neches-Groves Independent School District! This property is full of potential and ready for someone with vision to bring it back to life. Featuring a great location and endless possibilities, this home could make an excellent investment property, rental, flip, or future family home. Whether you're an investor, renovator, or buyer looking for your next project, this is your chance to create something special. Conveniently located near local shopping, dining, and schools. Don't miss the opportunity to transform this property into something truly beautiful — call today to schedule your showing!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $9,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,227
• After-tax cash flow: $7,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Neches-Groves ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835430
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $54,661
• Composite: 38.65/100
• National rank: #4152
• State rank: #260 of 826 in TX

Livability — Groves

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #315
• US rank: #7031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Groves, TX
• County: Jefferson County · 203,592 people
• City population: 16,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,976
• Household income: $73,710
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 131.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 259,015 people
• By 2030: 260,685 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 263,309 · +1.7%
• By 2050: 265,237 · +2.4%
• By 2075: 270,193 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 255,628 · -1.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 18% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 20% Vietnamese 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.9) · D 45.1% · R 54.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.1pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.9 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+0.5 2012: D+1.6 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -235.42%
• Current HPI: 183.1358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $68,500 BBOR
• 2026-05-21 Listed $68,500 Deep East Texas MLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,907 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.