802 N Clay Ave · Jacksonville, IL 62650

$29,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · Other · 46 Days on market

Built 1930 6,500 sqft lot $24/sqft · 43% below area Est $52k · 43% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A fixer-upper! 3 large BR, large kitchen & family room, full bath, patio & deep backyard. So many possibilities!

Key facts

• 6,500 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Single-family residence; Built in 1930; Shingle roof
• Construction: Built 1930
• Exterior features: Level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 130

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the main level (approx. 12 x 11), vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (all on the main level); Primary bedroom approx. 14 x 12, carpeted, with egress window; Second bedroom approx. 13 x 13, carpeted, with egress window; Third bedroom approx. 15 x 13, carpeted, with egress window
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Vinyl in kitchen
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; No central air conditioning; Forced air heating

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $811 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.8% vs local median 5.4% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#187 in IL, #3,543 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, schools D.
• Jacksonville SD 117 (town): math 20% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #407 of 620 in IL (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Morgan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $897 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Morgan County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $29,003 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 116.27%
• DSCR: 6.17
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,101
• List price: $29,900
• Delta: -42.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.59×
• Total profit: $46,832
• Equity at exit: $4,458

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.82×
• Total profit: $107,362
• Equity at exit: $2,585

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62650

• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,278 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $354/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $252

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 32%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $828	-5% $820	+0% $811	+5% $803	+10% $794
Rent	-10% $710	-5% $761	+0% $811	+5% $862	+10% $912
Rate	-1.0pp $826	-0.5pp $819	base $811	+0.5pp $803	+1.0pp $796

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $29,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $29,900 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $29,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $29,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $29,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $29,900 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $29,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $29,900 Active 35 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $29,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $29,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $29,900 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $29,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $29,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $29,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $29,900 Active 43-char remark
18. 2021-08-06
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $354 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $516 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$163/yr (+$14/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$354
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,227
• − Management: −$1,227
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $9,838
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,361
• After-tax cash flow: $7,373/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville SD 117
• NCES district ID: 1720280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,909
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8888
• State rank: #407 of 620 in IL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #3543

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, IL
• City population: 24,318
• Population (ZIP): 24,318

Population outlook (Morgan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,874 people
• By 2030: 31,698 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 29,050 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 26,381 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 20,235 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 14,324 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Morgan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.5) · D 33.1% · R 65.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.7pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -32.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.5 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+15.4 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.33%
• Current HPI: 126.5712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $29,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $354 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.