1950 Harvest Way · Walnut Grove, GA 30052

$260,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,075 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot Est $396k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

(WALTON CO. ) - VA FORECLOSURE - "FIXER UPPER" - GREAT INVESTMENT PROPERTY AND GREAT POTENTIAL - 4BR, 2BA RANCH HOME WITH SMALL UPSTAIRS BONUS AREA - LIVING ROOM WITH STONE FIREPLACE; MASTER BEDROOM WITH TREY CEILING; HIGH CEILINGS THROUGHOUT; EXTERIOR CONCRETE/STUCCO SIDING AND STONE ACCENT; 2-CAR GARAGE - NICE HOME LAY OUT AND APPEARS TO HAVE "GOOD BONES" - NEWER ROOF - SITS ON OVER AN ACRE LOT AND HAS SOME BEAUTIFUL LANDSCAPING THAT NEEDS SOME LAWN MAINTENANCE - (HOME NEEDS TOTAL REHAB) - PROPERTY IS BEING SOLD "AS IS" AND SELLER WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS. COME TAKE A LOOK.

Key facts

• Trey ceiling
• Stone fireplace
• Stone accent

Tags

• STONE FIREPLACE
• TREY CEILING
• HIGH CEILINGS
• STONE ACCENT
• ACRE LOT
• BEAUTIFUL LANDSCAPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $243k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $243k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.9% in Walnut Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#289 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Walton County (rural): math 43% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #31 of 174 in GA (top 18%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Youth Elementary School (math 72% / reading 61%, grade B+, #83 of 1,228 statewide, top 7%, 784 students, 29% FRL); Youth Middle School (math 40% / reading 41%, grade F, #140 of 470 statewide, top 30%, 1,236 students, 37% FRL); Walnut Grove High School (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #49 of 424 statewide, top 11%, 1,450 students, 28% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 865 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 677 units permitted in Walton County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($94k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walton County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,840 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $396,325
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4531 Center Hill Church Rd	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,064 (-0%)	21mo	$395,000	$191	60
4320 Center Hill Church Rd	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,099 (+1%)	10mo	$635,000	$303	50
4503 Atha Cir	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,255 (+9%)	7mo	$419,000	$186	41
3035 Gum Creek Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,258 (+9%)	22mo	$315,000	$140	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-18,821
• Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $14,145
• Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30052

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 865
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,002/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,969

Max offer price $260,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $510	-5% $437	+0% $363	+5% $290	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $171	-5% $267	+0% $363	+5% $459	+10% $555
Rate	-1.0pp $494	-0.5pp $429	base $363	+0.5pp $296	+1.0pp $227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $65,000
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1394 McKinsey Rdg Loganville, GA	5.0	3.0	3000	$850	$0.28	46d	1	0.73mi
4980 New Horizon Dr Loganville, GA	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,973	$1.18	22d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-12
   listed $260,000 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,002 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,392 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,390/yr (+$116/mo · 138.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,141
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,564
• − Property taxes: −$1,002
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,331
• − Management: −$2,331
• − Depreciation: −$7,564
• Taxable income: $49
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$12
• After-tax cash flow: $4,346/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walton County
• NCES district ID: 1305390
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $53,716
• Composite: 36.52/100
• National rank: #4643
• State rank: #31 of 174 in GA

Livability — Walnut Grove

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #289
• US rank: #15862

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Walton County · 128,246 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 79,811
• Household income: $93,764
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1174.0

Population outlook (Walton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,098 people
• By 2030: 102,496 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 110,318 · +12.5%
• By 2050: 115,848 · +18.1%
• By 2075: 125,830 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 123,852 · +26.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Walton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.7% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+49.2 2016: R+56.4 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+52.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.77%
• Current HPI: 212.1241
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $260,000 GAMLS

Property tax history

-3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,002 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.