16323 Fawn Ridge Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2001 0.40 ac lot $108/sqft · at area comps Est $167k · at est. $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HONEY STOP THE CAR! WOW! Lovely 3-bedroom 2 bath COMPLETELY updated in Conroe. Recently painted Inside and out, new light fixtures and hardware in the entire home, new vinyl plank flooring, New Quartz counters in the kitchen along with all new Stainless steel appliances, all bedrooms have new carpet, Gorgeous primary bathroom with modern tile bathroom, both bathrooms have updated new quartz countertops that match the kitchen . Large backyard for relaxing or entertainment. Come see today.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New quartz counters
• New light fixtures

Tags

• NEW LIGHT FIXTURES
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW QUARTZ COUNTERS
• NEW STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW CARPET
• MODERN TILE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $349 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,803 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,098
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: 1.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16287 Wrangler Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$179,991	$115	90
16547 Leafy Meadow Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	2mo	$185,000	$118	87
16385 Red Tail Hawk Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	3mo	$160,000	$102	87
16344 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$219,000	$140	81
16297 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.32mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$112	79
16535 Bunny Hill Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$155,000	$115	70
16117 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	3mo	$119,900	$76	68
16316 Lone Corral Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$179,999	$134	67
16524 Desert Star Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	4mo	$155,000	$115	63
16445 Kyle Reid Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	6mo	$199,000	$127	63
16327 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$189,000	$141	60
16105 Lone Star Ranch Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$160,000	$119	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,653
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $27,337
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$243 /mo · $2,911/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $349

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,571

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	43d	1	0.83mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	0.95mi
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$1,900	$1.14	1d	13	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $179,900 Active 492-char remark

    Show marketing remark (492 chars)

    HONEY STOP THE CAR! WOW! Lovely 3-bedroom 2 bath COMPLETELY updated in Conroe. Recently painted Inside and out, new light fixtures and hardware in the entire home, new vinyl plank flooring, New Quartz counters in the kitchen along with all new Stainless steel appliances, all bedrooms have new carpet, Gorgeous primary bathroom with modern tile bathroom, both bathrooms have updated new quartz countertops that match the kitchen . Large backyard for relaxing or entertainment. Come see today.

15. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus Closed
16. 2026-02-02
    soldstatus
17. 2026-01-22
    status Pending
18. 2025-12-22
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,911 · $243/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,109 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$17/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,150
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,911
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,622
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$389
• After-tax cash flow: $3,793/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+43.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-02-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-12-22 Listed $125,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,911 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.