5404 Earlann Dr · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40219

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1954 9,135 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Attention Investors!!! This one has a new roof & a new furnace! Great neighborhood for a flip or buy & hold for your portfolio with an ARV of 200k! 3/1 with a one car garage & a big yard! Hurry, won't last long! The home needs a complete rehab. Cash or Hard money only!

Key facts

• 9,135 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Meadow Hill
• HOA & community: No monthly maintenance or association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with space for one vehicle
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1954; Vinyl siding construction; Shingle roof; Concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Private and partial fencing; Cleared, level lot; Lot dimensions approximately 63 x 145

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen located on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Wall/window cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Four closets; No basement; Living room on the first floor; Laundry room on the first floor; First-floor primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Cap rate 13.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.21%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $187,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1115 Lone Oak Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	947 (-1%)	2mo	$215,000	$227	78
1109 Ireland Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	994 (+4%)	13mo	$161,600	$163	75
5417 Sunset Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,025 (+7%)	8mo	$220,000	$215	67
1104 Lone Oak Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+7%)	4mo	$215,000	$210	66
1118 Minor Ln	0.12mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,062 (+11%)	13mo	$200,000	$188	61
7112 Deanna Dr	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+9%)	7mo	$215,000	$205	60
5402 Sunset Dr	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,025 (+7%)	20mo	$210,000	$205	59
1115 Clay Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+15%)	15mo	$215,000	$195	58
1030 Reeves Rd Rd	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,085 (+13%)	4mo	$200,000	$184	56
1011 Reeves Rd	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+15%)	4mo	$215,000	$195	51
1229 Bates Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+12%)	9mo	$169,900	$158	44
1156 Markwell Ln	0.43mi	3/1.5	825 (-14%)	18mo	$112,000	$136	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $20,061
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $59,536
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40219

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 103
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,068/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $722

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3700 Chateau Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	23d	1	0.32mi
150 Markwell Ct Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,275	$1.77	3d	10	0.34mi
7510 Dunwoody Ct Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,150	$1.53	23d	1	0.43mi
7500 Beechview Way Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	743	$1,122	$1.51	3d	15	0.89mi
4203 Foreman Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	865	$974	$1.13	3d	6	1.17mi
7301 Monsey Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1245	$2,048	$1.64	1d	30	1.28mi
3511 Bonaventure Blvd Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	907	$1,112	$1.23	1d	7	1.41mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 275-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $85,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,858
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,068
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $5,434
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,304
• After-tax cash flow: $5,172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 39,909
• Household income: $55,720
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Cuban 14%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -278.92%
• Current HPI: 264.3235
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+1.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $85,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2007-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,068 · +84.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.