2907 Summer Village Cir · San Juan, TX 78589

$142,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,819 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 121 Days on market

Built 2023 0.39 ac lot $78/sqft · 50% below area ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss this incredible opportunity to own two prime lots in the desirable Summer Heights gated subdivision in San Juan! Summer Heights is a beautiful, well-maintained community, making it the perfect place to create your dream home or investment property.These well-located lots come ready to build, with a concrete slab and plumbing already in place, saving you time and money on construction. Additionally, blueprints are available, allowing you to customize and build according to your vision. Act now and Make An Offer Before It's Gone!

Key facts

• Two prime lots
• Concrete slab
• Blueprints available

Tags

• TWO PRIME LOTS
• WELL MAINTAINED COMMUNITY
• CONCRETE SLAB
• PLUMBING ALREADY IN PLACE
• BLUEPRINTS AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $472 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.24%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $299,468
• List price: $142,000
• Delta: -52.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2901 E Summer Hts	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,015 (+11%)	4mo	$325,000	$161	72
2308 San Charbel St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,763 (-3%)	2mo	$297,000	$168	62
2604 Deion Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,843 (+1%)	8mo	$364,900	$198	60
418 Rio Red	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,858 (+2%)	13mo	$270,990	$146	58
2205 San Charbel St	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,763 (-3%)	9mo	$290,000	$164	52
2211 San Charbel St	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,584 (-13%)	12mo	$285,000	$180	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,120
• Equity at exit: $21,173

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $45,232
• Equity at exit: $12,278

Cash invested: $39,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,953 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$268 /mo · $3,210/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $142,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,500
• Closing costs: $4,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	43d	1	0.63mi
2917 Arboledas Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$3,260	$1.77	14d	1	1.16mi
1007 Sumpter Ct Pharr, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$1,350	$0.93	43d	1	1.31mi
1306 Adela Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,500	$1.17	14d	1	1.34mi
1400 State Ave San Juan, TX	4.0	3.5	1750	$1,950	$1.11	19d	1	1.35mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	23d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $142,000 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $142,000 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $142,000 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $142,000 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $142,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $142,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $142,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $142,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $142,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $142,000 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $142,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $142,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $144,000 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $144,000 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-02-17
    listed $144,000 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    Don't miss this incredible opportunity to own two prime lots in the desirable Summer Heights gated subdivision in San Juan! Summer Heights is a beautiful, well-maintained community, making it the perfect place to create your dream home or investment property.These well-located lots come ready to build, with a concrete slab and plumbing already in place, saving you time and money on construction. Additionally, blueprints are available, allowing you to customize and build according to your vision. Act now and Make An Offer Before It's Gone!

18. 2025-11-10
    price $139,000
19. 2025-10-17
    listed $145,000 Active
20. 2025-02-23
    listed $148,000 Active
21. 2024-06-20
    listed $130,000 Active
22. 2023-03-31
    price $130,000
23. 2023-03-23
    price $140,000
24. 2022-12-28
    price $149,999
25. 2022-10-07
    price $165,000
26. 2022-08-01
    price $149,999
27. 2022-05-11
    listed $150,000 Active
28. 2021-06-02
    soldstatus
29. 2020-12-07
    price $38,000
30. 2020-11-24
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2020-10-20
    status Pending
32. 2020-10-19
    price $38,588
33. 2020-10-16
    listed $38,588 Active
34. 2016-09-15
    price $290,000
35. 2016-06-08
    price $325,000
36. 2008-05-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,210 · $268/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,210 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,439
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,954
• − Property taxes: −$3,210
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,875
• − Management: −$1,875
• − Depreciation: −$4,131
• Taxable income: $3,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$884
• After-tax cash flow: $4,777/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-55.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Listed $144,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $139,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $145,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-02-23 Listed $148,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-06-20 Listed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-03-31 Price Changed $130,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2023-03-23 Price Changed $140,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-12-28 Price Changed $149,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-10-07 Price Changed $165,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-08-01 Price Changed $149,999 MCALLENMLS
• 2022-05-11 Listed $150,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2021-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-07 Price Changed $38,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-11-24 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2020-10-20 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2020-10-19 Price Changed $38,588 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-10-16 Listed $38,588 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-09-15 Price Changed $290,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2016-06-08 Price Changed $325,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2008-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+18.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,210 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.