1068 Nelson Place Plan · Cottonwood, AZ 86326

$248,558

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 186 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover On The Greens, a 55+ Age Qualified Land Leased Manufactured Home Community in Cottonwood. This inviting home includes 3 BR, 2 BA, and 1400 sq. ft. of well-designed living space. Inside, you'll find features that bring both comfort and convenience. Set in a welcoming community atmosphere, this home offers a place where relaxation and connection come together. Contact our office today to learn more.

Key facts

• Listed 186 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $248,558

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Entry listed as 1068 Nelson Place
• Construction: Living area approximately 1400; Listed as new construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan home (1068 Nelson Place)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.9% in Cottonwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#7 in AZ, #2,176 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A, cost of living A; Watch: employment D, amenities F.
• Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487) (town): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #174 of 249 in AZ (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Preparatory School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #438 of 1,109 statewide, top 41%, 403 students, 33% FRL); Mingus Union High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #154 of 381 statewide, top 53%, 1,226 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 269 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,316/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 894% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,731 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.92%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1065 Crenshaw Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	2mo	$180,000	$125	90
972 Trevino Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,382 (-1%)	2mo	$179,900	$130	79
992 Trevino Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,431 (+2%)	3mo	$195,000	$136	76
2050 W St Route 89a -- #273	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	7mo	$150,000	$104	66
2050 W State Route 89a -- #158	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,334 (-5%)	5mo	$130,000	$97	65
2050 W SR 89a -- #104	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+4%)	1mo	$118,000	$81	64
2050 W State Route 89a -- #86	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	2mo	$35,000	$26	61
2050 W State Route 89-a -- #92	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	4mo	$145,000	$108	60
1024 Rankin Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+15%)	2mo	$199,900	$125	58
1216 Hogan Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$248,000	$155	57
2050 W State Route 89a -- #181	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,216 (-13%)	0mo	$120,000	$99	50
2050 W SR 89-a -- #96	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+12%)	1mo	$155,000	$99	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,924
• Equity at exit: $37,061

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-51,700
• Equity at exit: $21,491

Cash invested: $69,596 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86326

• Home prices YoY: -32.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,316 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$311 /mo · $3,728/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,174

Max offer price $248,558

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $197	+0% $112	+5% $26	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $20	+0% $112	+5% $203	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $237	-0.5pp $175	base $112	+0.5pp $47	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,140
• Closing costs: $7,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
992 Sterling Ln Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1652	$2,395	$1.45	23d	1	0.53mi
255 S Cottonwood Ranch Rd Cottonwood, AZ	3.0	2.0	1695	$2,195	$1.29	15d	1	1.31mi
1910 W Trail Blazer Dr Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1278	$2,900	$2.27	15d	1	1.32mi
133 S 8th Pl Cottonwood, AZ	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,700	$1.67	15d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $248,558 Active 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $248,558 Active 183 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $248,558 Active 182 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $248,558 Active 181 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $248,558 Active 180 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $248,558 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $248,558 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $248,558 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $248,558 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $248,558 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $248,558 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $248,558 Active 169 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $248,558 Active 168 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $248,558 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $248,558 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $248,558 Active 165 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $248,558 Active 164 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥103°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,728
• − Insurance: −$1,243
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,223
• − Management: −$2,223
• − Depreciation: −$7,231
• Taxable loss: −$2,785
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$668
• After-tax cash flow: $2,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cottonwood-Oak Creek Elementary District (4487)
• NCES district ID: 0402370
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,740
• Composite: 19.16/100
• National rank: #8822
• State rank: #174 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cottonwood

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2176

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living A Crime B+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cottonwood, AZ
• County: Yavapai County · 190,406 people
• City population: 24,852
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 24,852
• Household income: $57,378
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 894.0

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.27%
• Current HPI: 347.5058
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.22%
• Metro: Prescott Valley-Prescott, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B