221 Hwy 80 West · Arlington, KY 42021

$104,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,405 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

0.61 ac lot Est $114k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the peaceful countryside with this charming farmhouse nestled in the heart of Carlisle County. Full of warmth and character, this inviting home offers 2 comfortable bedrooms and 1 full bath, blending timeless farmhouse charm with everyday functionality. Step inside and discover a cozy atmosphere filled with character and country appeal. Outside, you'll find plenty of space to enjoy rural living, including a detached, newly built two-car garage complete with two separate storage rooms—perfect for tools, hobbies, seasonal items, or a workshop Relax on the cozy back porch while taking in the peaceful surroundings and beautiful country views. Gardening enthusiasts will appreciat

Key facts

• Newly built garage
• Gardening shed
• Cozy back porch

Tags

• DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• NEWLY BUILT GARAGE
• GARDENING SHED
• COZY BACK PORCH
• BEAUTIFUL COUNTRY VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; Circular driveway; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single story
• Construction: Built with block, frame, vinyl siding and wood siding; Composition roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch/patio; Storm door(s); Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator; Cooktop; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Storm windows

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#470 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Carlisle County (rural): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #59 of 165 in KY (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlisle County Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 409 students, 66% FRL); Carlisle County Middle School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #99 of 217 statewide, top 47%, 146 students, 58% FRL); Carlisle County High School (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 204 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.8% local appreciation)).
• Carlisle County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $105k implies a 577% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,326 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.80%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $113,805
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
97 4th St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,456 (+4%)	1mo	$118,000	$81	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.85% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $30,615
• Equity at exit: $58,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $86,739
• Equity at exit: $100,182

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42021

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $286/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $115

Break-even live

Break-even rent $940

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $104,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $104,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $104,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 2 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    remarks 693-char remark
16. 2026-05-30
    listed $104,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $286 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$616/yr (+$51/mo · 215.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,025
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$286
• − Insurance: −$2,027
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$299
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$72
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle County
• NCES district ID: 2100960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $37,978
• Composite: 30.43/100
• National rank: #6236
• State rank: #59 of 165 in KY

Livability — Arlington

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #470
• US rank: #23430

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arlington, KY
• Population (ZIP): 1,190

Population outlook (Carlisle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,537 people
• By 2030: 4,341 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 4,003 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 3,736 · -17.7%
• By 2075: 3,405 · -25.0%
• By 2100: 3,264 · -28.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carlisle

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.6pp toward R · 2008: -31.3pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.3 2016: R+64.0 2012: R+41.4 2008: R+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Current HPI: 200.7522
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+576.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Listed $104,900 WKRMLS
• 1997-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,500 Public Records