1264 Happy Rd · Billings, MI 48612

$69,700

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 675 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

8,712 sqft lot $103/sqft · 26% below area Est $95k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Need a peaceful place to escape the city? Cute cabin on a large lot for the kids to play and run out their energy. There is one bedroom on the main floor and then there’s loft for additional sleeping space – kids love lofts! All furniture and appliances stay with the sale, beds have only been slept on a handful of times and the living room furniture is like new. The sofa is covered in sheets to keep it clean. Cabin needs a bit of love and maintenance but is sound and waiting for new life and new family to come and enjoy. There is a private well, natural gas heat, 100 amp electrical service, and the home is hooked up to the sanitary sewer system. The furnace and hot water tank

Key facts

• Private well
• Large lot
• Natural gas heat

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• PRIVATE WELL
• NATURAL GAS HEAT
• 100 AMP ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• SANITARY SEWER SYSTEM
• ENCLOSED PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on approximately 0.2 acres (approx. 9,080 sq ft); Roads: city/county and gravel, year-round access; Frontage approximately 170 feet; Zoned residential; Located in a township (Billings Twp), mail city Beaverton
• Financial info: No investment or income/expense details provided
• HOA & community: No HOA information provided

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Cable connected; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected (public sanitary); Private well for water; Internet (Spectrum)
• Home design: Residential property; One-story structure; Entry faces south (side of street: S)
• Construction: Slab foundation; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Log exterior; Storms/screens; Shed on the property; Corner lot, cleared; Rural view; Frontage on a road

Interior

• Kitchen: Ceramic floor; Range/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (12 x 10) with carpet; Upper-level bedroom (15 x 12) with carpet
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Laminate in living room; Ceramic in kitchen and bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level with ceramic flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Ceiling fan(s) for cooling; Natural gas heat source
• Interior features: Cathedral/vaulted ceiling; Furnished; 5 total rooms (includes living room and loft)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($881 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Beaverton Rural Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #364 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Gladwin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $482 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gladwin County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $70k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $67,609 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.34%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,536
• List price: $69,700
• Delta: -26.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4170/4161 Bay View Dr	0.07mi	2/1.0	670 (-1%)	9mo	$159,000	$237	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $5,609
• Equity at exit: $10,392

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $26,600
• Equity at exit: $6,026

Cash invested: $19,516 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48612

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $881 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$366
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $429/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $545

Max offer price $69,700

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $285	+0% $266	+5% $246	+10% $226
Rent	-10% $196	-5% $231	+0% $266	+5% $300	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $283	base $266	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $229

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,425
• Closing costs: $2,091
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,700 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,700 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,700 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,700 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,700 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $69,700 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $74,700 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,700 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,700 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,700 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,700 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,700 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,700 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,700 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,700 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,700 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $74,700 Active 1018-char remark
18. 2016-09-22
    listed $23,900
19. 2014-06-02
    soldstatus $25,000
20. 2011-09-04
    historical
21. 2011-09-03
    historical
22. 2009-03-02
    listed $29,900
23. 2009-03-02
    listed $29,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $429 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $751 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: +$322/yr (+$27/mo · 75.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,904
• − Property taxes: −$429
• − Insurance: −$348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$846
• − Management: −$846
• − Depreciation: −$2,028
• Taxable income: $2,171
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$521
• After-tax cash flow: $2,667/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Beaverton Rural Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604440
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,200
• Composite: 25.54/100
• National rank: #7431
• State rank: #364 of 540 in MI

Livability — Billings

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,505

Population outlook (Gladwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,440 people
• By 2030: 22,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 19,867 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 17,667 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 12,909 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 8,629 · -63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gladwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.7) · D 29.1% · R 69.8% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.2pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.7 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+7.2 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.55%
• Current HPI: 215.4508
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+133.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Price Changed $69,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $74,700 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-09-22 Listed $23,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2014-06-02 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 2011-09-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2011-09-03 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-02 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2009-03-02 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP

Property tax history

-9.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $429 · -66.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.