20954 E Sierra Dr #2 · Cordes Lakes, AZ 86333

$6,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 617 sqft · Townhouse · 132 Days on market

Built 1989 ↓ 34% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Listing agent has all information GUILDING FOR SALE ONLY NOT THE LAND

Key facts

• Built 1989
• Listed 132 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size source: owner; Building area source: owner; Lot features: none; Tax year: 2025
• Financial info: Current financing: other
• HOA & community: Association fee includes: other (see remarks)

Exterior

• Utilities: Water: City water; Sewer: None; Utilities details: see remarks
• Home design: Patio home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Construction materials include vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; No fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 possible bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating; Cooling details: see remarks; Heating type: other
• Interior features: Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups on site

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $6k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $6k).
• Recommended offer: $6k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 213.7% vs local median 5.1% in Cordes Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#181 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Mayer Unified School District (4473) (rural): math 23% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #165 of 249 in AZ (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mayer Elementary School (math 26% / reading 32%, grade F, #570 of 1,109 statewide, top 52%, 373 students, 93% FRL); Mayer High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #364 of 381 statewide, top 100%, 200 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools at 79% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 2,062 units permitted in Yavapai County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $695 of equity ($45 loan paydown + $650 appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Yavapai County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($6k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 22.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 213.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 740.65%
• DSCR: 33.95
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 42.27×
• Total profit: $75,107
• Equity at exit: $5,856

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 91.64×
• Total profit: $164,960
• Equity at exit: $12,628

Cash invested: $1,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86333

• Home prices YoY: 17.3%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$34
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$8 /mo · $98/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $1,123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $57

Max offer price $6,500

Occupancy floor 19%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,625
• Closing costs: $195
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $6,500 Active 132 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $6,500 Active 131 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $6,500 Active 130 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $6,500 Active 129 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $6,500 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $6,500 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $6,500 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $6,500 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $6,500 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $6,500 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $6,500 Active 117 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $6,500 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $6,500 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $6,500 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $6,500 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $6,500
17. 2026-03-09
    price $7,900
18. 2026-02-08
    status Active
19. 2026-02-06
    historical
20. 2026-02-04
    listed $9,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$364
• − Property taxes: −$98
• − Insurance: −$32
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$189
• Taxable income: $14,223
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,413
• After-tax cash flow: $10,066/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayer Unified School District (4473)
• NCES district ID: 0404820
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $35,108
• Composite: 20.22/100
• National rank: #8627
• State rank: #165 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Cordes Lakes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #19144

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cordes Lakes, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Yavapai County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 241,389 people
• By 2030: 249,523 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 259,966 · +7.7%
• By 2050: 264,736 · +9.7%
• By 2075: 269,334 · +11.6%
• By 2100: 256,505 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yavapai

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.6% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.5pp toward R · 2008: -24.4pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+29.3 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+30.7 2008: R+24.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.51%
• Current HPI: 376.0374
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-34.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $6,500 ARMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $7,900 ARMLS
• 2026-02-08 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Listed $9,900 ARMLS