455 Eagle Factory Rd · Lawrenceburg, TN 38464

$129,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 1959 Fair condition 1.10 ac lot ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.1 acre lot
• Built 1959
• Listed 94 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 900 (source: owner)

Exterior

• Parking: No covered parking reported; No total parking spaces reported
• Utilities: Public water available; Septic tank; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story
• Construction: Frame construction; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 1.1 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Wall/Window cooling units
• Interior features: Crawl space basement; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: No laundry appliances listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($296/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#105 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (rural): math 29% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #67 of 139 in TN (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: David Crockett Elementary (math 30% / reading 36%, grade F, #361 of 952 statewide, top 38%, 462 students, 0% FRL); E O Coffman Middle School (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #154 of 333 statewide, top 48%, 582 students, 0% FRL); Lawrence Co High School (math 26% / reading 23%, grade F, #129 of 332 statewide, top 43%, 1,143 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 50% district-wide (50 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,757 (10.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-19,460
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-14,851
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38464

• Home prices YoY: -19.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $114	-5% $70	+0% $25	+5% $-20	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-68	-5% $-21	+0% $25	+5% $71	+10% $117
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $58	base $25	+0.5pp $-9	+1.0pp $-43

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $129,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $129,900 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-17
   status $129,900 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active Under Contract 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active Under Contract 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,900 Active Under Contract 86 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    statusdays on market $129,900 Active Under Contract 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $129,900 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,900 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $129,900 Active 79 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-05-01
    price $135,000
20. 2026-04-04
    price $145,000
21. 2026-03-20
    listed $169,500 Active
22. 2026-03-16
    historical $169,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$452
• After-tax cash flow: $748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to its roof, exterior, flooring, interior walls, and bathrooms. Significant roof damage and weathered siding are visible, indicating a major need for repairs. The worn carpet and paint also suggest a need for updates. The home has potential for significant value increase with these improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage visible
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major flooring — Worn carpet in living areas
• Major interior walls — Worn paint on interior walls
• Major bathrooms — Old-fashioned fixtures

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — Significant roof damage
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Weathered and peeling
• Resale flooring replacement — Worn carpet
• Resale paint interior walls — Worn paint
• Resale bathroom updates — Old-fashioned fixtures

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage visible	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet in living areas	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Worn paint on interior walls	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathrooms · Old-fashioned fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale roof replacement — Significant roof damage ↑
• Resale exterior siding and paint — Weathered and peeling ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — Worn carpet ↑
• Resale paint interior walls — Worn paint ↑
• Resale bathroom updates — Old-fashioned fixtures ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County
• NCES district ID: 4702340
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,613
• Composite: 24.2/100
• National rank: #7729
• State rank: #67 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lawrenceburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #10729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,727

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,724 people
• By 2030: 42,627 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 42,144 · -1.4%
• By 2050: 40,800 · -4.5%
• By 2075: 36,643 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 29,193 · -31.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.3pp toward R · 2008: -33.7pp · 2024: -69.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.1 2020: R+64.8 2016: R+61.3 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+33.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.17%
• Current HPI: 291.6302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-20.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $135,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $145,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $169,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Coming Soon $169,500 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid