157 Bunting Ln #25 · Tri-City, OR 97457

$40,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured · 38 Days on market

Built 1977 Fair condition $55/sqft · 63% below area ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home located in the desirable Horizon Estates Community Mobile Home Park. Enjoy affordable monthly space rent of just $455, with trash service included. Conveniently located close to shopping, dining, and other amenities in an all-age park setting. This cozy home features new updates, a covered front porch, and a handy tool shed for extra storage. Perfect for first-time home buyers or anyone looking to downsize. Call today!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Handy tool shed
• Close to dining

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• HANDY TOOL SHED
• AFFORDABLE MONTHLY SPACE RENT
• TRASH SERVICE INCLUDED
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is resale; Main level area approximately 728
• HOA & community: Horizon Estate Community association; Community trash service; Park name: Horizon Estates Community; Lot rent: $455 per month

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Electricity; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home in a park; Residential property; Single-story; Mountain and territorial views; Entry level: main
• Construction: Built in 1977; Rubber roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation with skirting
• Exterior features: Porch; Tool shed; Yard; Metal siding; Paved road access; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Main-floor bedroom with bath; One-level living; Laundry area (washer/dryer included); Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $711 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 3.3% in Tri-City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Tri City Elementary School (math 15% / reading 34%, grade F, #309 of 412 statewide, top 77%, 285 students, 70% FRL); Coffenberry Middle School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 284 students, 72% FRL); South Umpqua High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 443 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.19%
• DSCR: 4.39
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,278
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -62.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 Bunting Ln #28	0.03mi	2/2.0	784 (+8%)	12mo	$35,000	$45	72
1042 Cornutt St	0.42mi	2/1.0	672 (-8%)	6mo	$110,000	$164	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $38,826
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.23×
• Total profit: $92,201
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97457

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $711

Break-even live

Break-even rent $350

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $739	-5% $725	+0% $711	+5% $697	+10% $683
Rent	-10% $612	-5% $662	+0% $711	+5% $760	+10% $810
Rate	-1.0pp $731	-0.5pp $721	base $711	+0.5pp $701	+1.0pp $690

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
340 NW Heard St Unit 4 Myrtle Creek, OR	1.0	1.0	700	$1,250	$1.79	45d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $40,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $40,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $40,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $40,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    listed $45,000 Active 449-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $8,396
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,015
• After-tax cash flow: $6,518/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. The exterior siding and roof are in poor condition, and the interior walls and flooring need attention. Painting and replacing these items would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Exposed roof structure
• Major exterior siding — Weathered and peeling
• Major flooring — Worn carpet and subfloor
• Major interior walls — Worn paint and general wear

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace roof — Fixes major structural issue and improves value
• Both Replace carpet and subfloor — Improves living space and value
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Exposed roof structure	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet and subfloor	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Worn paint and general wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace roof — Fixes major structural issue and improves value ↑
• Both Replace carpet and subfloor — Improves living space and value ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances interior appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Tri-City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tri-City, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,158

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.88%
• Current HPI: 348.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-11.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $40,000 RMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $45,000 RMLS