25933 N 53rd Dr · Phoenix, AZ 85083

$379,900

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,493 sqft · Condo public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2009 $254/sqft · 12% below area Est $429k · 12% under $418/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Here is your chance to get into Inspiration @ Stetson Valley! Great charming home in a gated, family oriented community. This lovely home offers a light and bright floor plan boasting a nice size living room, beautiful kitchen with STAINLESS STEEL appliances and GRANITE counter tops. Dining area leads you to this delightful private patio that is perfect for BBQing, entertaining and enjoying our AZ weather & mountain views. Large master suite inviting you to relax, with separate shower and tub and a large walk in closet. Wonderful palette of colors tastefully done creating a warm environment, 2 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry! Stetson Valley offers easy access to biking, hiking, golf & shopping. NOTE: HOA includes water, sewer, trash, pool and front yard care!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Smart thermostats
• Water softener

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ENGINEERED WOOD FLOORING
• SMART THERMOSTATS
• RING DOORBELL
• WHOLE HOUSE WATER FILTRATION
• WATER SOFTENER

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: FHA financing noted
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly and quarterly fees; Association fees include insurance, sewer, grounds maintenance, trash, water, and exterior maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; Rear vehicle entry; 2-car garage
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Gravel/stone front; Block fencing; City view; Community pool; Gated community; Playground; Biking/walking path; Near bus stop

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Pantry; Granite counters; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in primary bathroom; Full bath in primary bedroom; Separate shower and tub; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Low-emissivity, dual-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer connections implied (no specific appliances listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-681 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (31.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (32.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Elementary School (math 57% / reading 63%, grade B-, #146 of 1,109 statewide, top 13%, 476 students, 18% FRL); Hillcrest Middle School (math 49% / reading 60%, grade B-, #15 of 218 statewide, top 7%, 899 students, 14% FRL); Sandra Day O'Connor High School (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #58 of 381 statewide, top 15%, 2,567 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $41k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $38k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$65k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $279k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,511 (32.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.68%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,401
• List price: $379,900
• Delta: -11.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $161,829
• Equity at exit: $342,244

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $507,235
• Equity at exit: $738,062

Cash invested: $106,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85083

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,992
• Tax from tax record: −$138 /mo · $1,661/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$418
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,427

Max offer price $259,680

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-465	-5% $-573	+0% $-681	+5% $-788	+10% $-896
Rent	-10% $-883	-5% $-782	+0% $-681	+5% $-579	+10% $-478
Rate	-1.0pp $-489	-0.5pp $-584	base $-681	+0.5pp $-779	+1.0pp $-879

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,975
• Closing costs: $11,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5310 W Chisum Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1719	$2,195	$1.28	1d	1	0.07mi
26616 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1306	$1,900	$1.45	45d	1	0.32mi
26681 N Babbling Brook Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,160	$1.15	9d	1	0.36mi
26733 N 53rd Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1306	$4,000	$3.06	45d	1	0.39mi
5340 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,400	$1.28	26d	1	0.43mi
5388 W Molly Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1871	$2,099	$1.12	9d	1	0.45mi
5511 W Desperado Way Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1794	$2,695	$1.50	1d	1	0.71mi
5412 W Fetlock Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1805	$3,200	$1.77	45d	1	0.77mi
5414 W Straight Arrow Ln Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1760	$4,500	$2.56	45d	1	0.83mi
6124 W Whispering Wind Dr Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,295	$1.76	45d	1	1.28mi
6424 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1647	$2,195	$1.33	9d	1	1.41mi
6504 W Saddlehorn Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1258	$2,245	$1.78	6d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $418 · $5,016/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $379,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $379,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $379,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-30
    listed $389,900 Active 674-char remark
17. 2020-12-31
    status Pending 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Here is your chance to get into Inspiration @ Stetson Valley! Great charming home in a gated, family oriented community. This lovely home offers a light and bright floor plan boasting a nice size living room, beautiful kitchen with STAINLESS STEEL appliances and GRANITE counter tops. Dining area leads you to this delightful private patio that is perfect for BBQing, entertaining and enjoying our AZ weather & mountain views. Large master suite inviting you to relax, with separate shower and tub and a large walk in closet. Wonderful palette of colors tastefully done creating a warm environment, 2 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry! Stetson Valley offers easy access to biking, hiking, golf & shopping. NOTE: HOA includes water, sewer, trash, pool and front yard care!

18. 2020-12-30
    soldstatus $279,000 Closed 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Here is your chance to get into Inspiration @ Stetson Valley! Great charming home in a gated, family oriented community. This lovely home offers a light and bright floor plan boasting a nice size living room, beautiful kitchen with STAINLESS STEEL appliances and GRANITE counter tops. Dining area leads you to this delightful private patio that is perfect for BBQing, entertaining and enjoying our AZ weather & mountain views. Large master suite inviting you to relax, with separate shower and tub and a large walk in closet. Wonderful palette of colors tastefully done creating a warm environment, 2 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry! Stetson Valley offers easy access to biking, hiking, golf & shopping. NOTE: HOA includes water, sewer, trash, pool and front yard care!

19. 2020-11-24
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Here is your chance to get into Inspiration @ Stetson Valley! Great charming home in a gated, family oriented community. This lovely home offers a light and bright floor plan boasting a nice size living room, beautiful kitchen with STAINLESS STEEL appliances and GRANITE counter tops. Dining area leads you to this delightful private patio that is perfect for BBQing, entertaining and enjoying our AZ weather & mountain views. Large master suite inviting you to relax, with separate shower and tub and a large walk in closet. Wonderful palette of colors tastefully done creating a warm environment, 2 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry! Stetson Valley offers easy access to biking, hiking, golf & shopping. NOTE: HOA includes water, sewer, trash, pool and front yard care!

20. 2020-11-17
    listed $279,000 Active 789-char remark

    Show marketing remark (789 chars)

    Here is your chance to get into Inspiration @ Stetson Valley! Great charming home in a gated, family oriented community. This lovely home offers a light and bright floor plan boasting a nice size living room, beautiful kitchen with STAINLESS STEEL appliances and GRANITE counter tops. Dining area leads you to this delightful private patio that is perfect for BBQing, entertaining and enjoying our AZ weather & mountain views. Large master suite inviting you to relax, with separate shower and tub and a large walk in closet. Wonderful palette of colors tastefully done creating a warm environment, 2 additional bedrooms, bathroom and laundry! Stetson Valley offers easy access to biking, hiking, golf & shopping. NOTE: HOA includes water, sewer, trash, pool and front yard care!

21. 2013-04-23
    soldstatus $141,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    GREAT PRICE! for this excellent condition home in terrific, gated neighborhood! Home has nice curb appeal, large family room, dining area, upgraded kitchen with granite counters, pantry, and stainless appliances, community POOL, mountain views, extra storage cabinets, courtyard area, and more. All this and a great North Phoenix location close to parks, shopping, 101 freeway, schools, etc. What a great place to call home!

22. 2013-02-09
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    GREAT PRICE! for this excellent condition home in terrific, gated neighborhood! Home has nice curb appeal, large family room, dining area, upgraded kitchen with granite counters, pantry, and stainless appliances, community POOL, mountain views, extra storage cabinets, courtyard area, and more. All this and a great North Phoenix location close to parks, shopping, 101 freeway, schools, etc. What a great place to call home!

23. 2013-01-30
    listed $141,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    GREAT PRICE! for this excellent condition home in terrific, gated neighborhood! Home has nice curb appeal, large family room, dining area, upgraded kitchen with granite counters, pantry, and stainless appliances, community POOL, mountain views, extra storage cabinets, courtyard area, and more. All this and a great North Phoenix location close to parks, shopping, 101 freeway, schools, etc. What a great place to call home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,661 · $138/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,507 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: +$846/yr (+$70/mo · 50.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,280
• − Property taxes: −$1,661
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,463
• − Management: −$2,463
• − HOA: −$5,016
• − Depreciation: −$11,052
• Taxable loss: −$15,052
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 21,022
• Household income: $149,087
• Rent vs Own: 10.5% rent · 89.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 81.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Asian 10% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.78%
• Current HPI: 289.2128
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.29%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+169.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $379,900 ARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $389,900 ARMLS
• 2020-12-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-12-30 Sold (MLS) $279,000 ARMLS
• 2020-11-24 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-11-17 Listed $279,000 ARMLS
• 2013-04-23 Sold (MLS) $141,500 ARMLS
• 2013-02-09 Pending — ARMLS
• 2013-01-30 Listed $141,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,661 · +36.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.