1200 E Central Ave #128 · Sutherlin, OR 97479

$55,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1993 $60/sqft · 26% below area Est $74k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located at the back of a 55+ community park, providing a private country feel with deer often walking along the street past your home. The open floor plan features a vaulted ceiling and large windows that allow for plenty of natural light. The spacious living room is conveniently located close to the kitchen, dining room, bathroom, and guest room. The kitchen is equipped with all appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a convenient pass-through. The primary bedroom offers ample closet space and it's own private bathroom. Additionally, there is a carport for parking, guest parking available and a storage shed. The park amenities include access to beautifully and well maintained common areas, clubhouse and pool. The park is located in beautiful Sutherlin in Southern Oregon offering shopping, dining, medical facilities, and a walking/bike path nearby.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Ample closet space
• Storage shed

Tags

• LARGE WINDOWS
• PLENTY OF NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CLOSET SPACE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• CARPORT FOR PARKING
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $52k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 3.5% in Sutherlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#135 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Sutherlin SD 130 (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #47 of 58 in OR (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($52k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,700 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.12%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,400
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -26.08%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 E Central Ave #128	0.00mi	2/2.0	924 (0%)	1mo	$55,000	$60	99
1200 E Central Ave #139	0.00mi	2/2.0	950 (+3%)	4mo	$74,400	$78	92
1200 E Central Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	924 (0%)	12mo	$18,000	$19	86
1200 E Central Ave #80	0.00mi	2/1.0	816 (-12%)	2mo	$74,900	$92	75
1200 E Central Ave #70	0.00mi	2/2.0	840 (-9%)	22mo	$65,000	$77	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $26,225
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $68,185
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97479

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $405/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $521

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $582	-5% $567	+0% $551	+5% $536	+10% $520
Rent	-10% $455	-5% $503	+0% $551	+5% $599	+10% $647
Rate	-1.0pp $579	-0.5pp $565	base $551	+0.5pp $537	+1.0pp $522

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
214 Sunny Ln Unit 122 Sutherlin, OR	2.0	1.0	860	$1,195	$1.39	22d	1	0.10mi
233 NW Sherman St Sutherlin, OR	2.0	2.0	988	$1,550	$1.57	15d	2	1.41mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 896-char remark

   Show marketing remark (896 chars)

   This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located at the back of a 55+ community park, providing a private country feel with deer often walking along the street past your home. The open floor plan features a vaulted ceiling and large windows that allow for plenty of natural light. The spacious living room is conveniently located close to the kitchen, dining room, bathroom, and guest room. The kitchen is equipped with all appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a convenient pass-through. The primary bedroom offers ample closet space and it's own private bathroom. Additionally, there is a carport for parking, guest parking available and a storage shed. The park amenities include access to beautifully and well maintained common areas, clubhouse and pool. The park is located in beautiful Sutherlin in Southern Oregon offering shopping, dining, medical facilities, and a walking/bike path nearby.

2. 2026-03-17
   listed $55,000 Active 896-char remark

   Show marketing remark (896 chars)

   This 2 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is located at the back of a 55+ community park, providing a private country feel with deer often walking along the street past your home. The open floor plan features a vaulted ceiling and large windows that allow for plenty of natural light. The spacious living room is conveniently located close to the kitchen, dining room, bathroom, and guest room. The kitchen is equipped with all appliances, plenty of cabinet space, and a convenient pass-through. The primary bedroom offers ample closet space and it's own private bathroom. Additionally, there is a carport for parking, guest parking available and a storage shed. The park amenities include access to beautifully and well maintained common areas, clubhouse and pool. The park is located in beautiful Sutherlin in Southern Oregon offering shopping, dining, medical facilities, and a walking/bike path nearby.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $405 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $534 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 31.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$405
• − Insurance: −$1,072
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,170
• − Management: −$1,170
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $6,124
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $5,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sutherlin SD 130
• NCES district ID: 4111940
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $40,425
• Composite: 24.79/100
• National rank: #7598
• State rank: #47 of 58 in OR

Livability — Sutherlin

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #7711

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sutherlin, OR
• Population (ZIP): 10,479

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.34%
• Current HPI: 328.8614
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $55,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $405 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.