Eureka Plan · Wolfforth, TX 79382

$289,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,045 sqft · SingleFamily · 686 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

We are down to our final opportunities in Frenship Mesa! Located in beautiful, Wolfforth, Texas, Frenship Mesa is the community you've been waiting for. Located off of Dowden Road just minutes away from Frenship Highschool. Residents will enjoy easy access to nearby parks, dining & shopping. D. R. Horton has been designing and building quality homes since 1978 and we are happy to offer new homes in the Lubbock area. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 686 days

🏗️ New construction. The $289,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,591.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#43 in TX, #1,872 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Frenship ISD (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #162 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 472 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 686 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $215,086 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 686 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $278,591
• List price: $289,990
• Delta: 4.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $137,360
• Equity at exit: $250,977

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $415,892
• Equity at exit: $541,241

Cash invested: $78,005 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79382

• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,151 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,461
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$348 /mo · $4,179/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$452
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,437

Max offer price $245,874

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-34	-5% $-130	+0% $-226	+5% $-322	+10% $-419
Rent	-10% $-396	-5% $-311	+0% $-226	+5% $-141	+10% $-56
Rate	-1.0pp $-86	-0.5pp $-155	base $-226	+0.5pp $-298	+1.0pp $-372

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,648
• Closing costs: $8,358
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
328 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	2045	$2,450	$1.20	14d	1	0.19mi
209 Sooner St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1951	$1,875	$0.96	44d	1	0.21mi
405 Ranger St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,450	$1.31	14d	1	0.25mi
213 Wildcat St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	2811	$2,800	$1.00	14d	1	0.33mi
127 Brooke Blvd Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.5	1714	$1,757	$1.03	14d	2	0.41mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	22d	1	0.89mi
1019 Donald Preston Dr Unit A Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,275	$0.91	44d	1	0.89mi
1224 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	44d	1	0.98mi
1216 Donald Preston Dr Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,400	$0.97	44d	1	0.98mi
132 Calvin Dr Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1652	$2,300	$1.39	14d	1	0.99mi
811 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,595	$1.05	44d	1	1.03mi
906 11th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1731	$2,000	$1.16	44d	1	1.06mi
1313 Corpus Ave Unit B Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,850	$1.19	14d	1	1.07mi
215 14th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	3.0	1850	$2,200	$1.19	14d	1	1.08mi
816 N 4th St Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1750	$2,100	$1.20	44d	1	1.12mi
7811 86th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1710	$2,025	$1.18	22d	1	1.12mi
7811 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1946	$2,195	$1.13	22d	1	1.15mi
7805 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,150	$1.14	44d	1	1.17mi
7729 92nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1810	$2,495	$1.38	22d	1	1.21mi
1503 Good Prairie Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$2,450	$1.13	22d	1	1.22mi
7732 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	22d	1	1.23mi
7729 96th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1978	$2,300	$1.16	14d	1	1.25mi
7731 97th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1888	$2,075	$1.10	22d	1	1.26mi
723 E 17th St Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,800	$1.08	44d	1	1.33mi
1817 Corpus Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,600	$1.14	14d	1	1.41mi
2008 Cottonwood Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,810	$1.25	44d	1	1.43mi
2418 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	44d	1	1.49mi
2408 Aberdeen Ave Wolfforth, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$2,100	$1.23	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,990 Active 686 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,990 Active 685 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,990 Active 684 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,990 Active 683 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,990 Active 680 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,990 Active 678 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,990 Active 677 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,990 Active 676 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,990 Active 675 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,990 Active 672 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 671 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 670 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 669 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 668 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,990 Active 667 DOM
16. 2024-08-01
    listed $289,990 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    We are down to our final opportunities in Frenship Mesa! Located in beautiful, Wolfforth, Texas, Frenship Mesa is the community you've been waiting for. Located off of Dowden Road just minutes away from Frenship Highschool. Residents will enjoy easy access to nearby parks, dining & shopping. D. R. Horton has been designing and building quality homes since 1978 and we are happy to offer new homes in the Lubbock area. Images are representative of plan and may vary as built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,810
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,605
• − Property taxes: −$4,179
• − Insurance: −$1,393
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,065
• − Management: −$2,065
• − Depreciation: −$8,104
• Taxable loss: −$7,601
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,824
• After-tax cash flow: $-889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frenship ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819830
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $54,376
• Composite: 43.59/100
• National rank: #2976
• State rank: #162 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wolfforth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #43
• US rank: #1872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wolfforth, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 10,512
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,512
• Household income: $84,457
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 166.08%
• Current HPI: 561.4491
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-08-01 Listed $289,990 Zillow