232 Grifford Dr · Poinciana, FL 34758

$354,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,964 sqft · Land · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 0.33 ac lot $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE IN TODAY! ASK ABOUT BUILDER INCENTIVES FOR CLOSING COSTS OR RATE BUY-DOWN! Welcome to The Willow, the newest floor plan by Honesty Homes—where quality craftsmanship meets modern elegance. This thoughtfully designed 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom residence offers 1,964 sq ft of open-concept living space (2,580 sq ft total), all situated on a spacious quarter-acre lot. Step into the expansive layout and you'll immediately notice the seamless flow from the high-end kitchen—complete with 42" cabinets, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a central island—into the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. The primary suite is truly a retreat, featuring

Key facts

• Central island
• High end kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• HIGH END KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• OVERSIZED WALK IN CLOSET
• LUXURIOUS EN SUITE BATH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total annual fees listed as $1,200; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Association of Poinciana Villages; Monthly HOA fee $100 (includes cable TV, internet, pool); Community amenities: park, pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available and connected; Water and sewer available and connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property; One-story; East-facing; Completed condition; Zoned OPUD
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Lot about one-third acre (approx. 0.33 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan with kitchen/family room combo; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-664 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (27.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Academy of Fine Arts (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 66% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 612 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $166k; list at $355k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,150 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.02%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-104,854
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.67×
• Total profit: $-165,534
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,392 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$444 /mo · $5,325/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,232

Max offer price $258,912

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-419	-5% $-541	+0% $-664	+5% $-787	+10% $-909
Rent	-10% $-853	-5% $-758	+0% $-664	+5% $-570	+10% $-475
Rate	-1.0pp $-485	-0.5pp $-574	base $-664	+0.5pp $-756	+1.0pp $-850

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
126 Briarcliff Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,965	$1.18	0d	1	0.19mi
201 Great Yarmouth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1866	$2,500	$1.34	12d	1	0.21mi
131 Barrington Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,250	$1.35	25d	1	0.27mi
950 Derbyshire Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2224	$1,995	$0.90	25d	1	0.40mi
939 Stockport Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$1,999	$1.07	6d	1	0.44mi
906 Dartmouth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1660	$1,909	$1.15	4d	1	0.45mi
919 Cumbran Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,890	$1.12	25d	1	0.63mi
919 Cumbran Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1691	$1,890	$1.12	12d	1	0.63mi
672 Basingstoke Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2501	$850	$0.34	25d	1	0.66mi
501 Bristol Cir Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,260	$1.35	21d	1	0.69mi
826 San Jose Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,110	$1.16	16d	1	0.70mi
649 Rosaro Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2204	$1,919	$0.87	9d	1	0.74mi
250 Canterbury Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,919	$1.13	25d	1	0.76mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	3d	1	0.80mi
532 Bassett Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2308	$2,195	$0.95	15d	1	0.87mi
1126 Chichester Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1872	$2,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.89mi
651 Mercado Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	5d	1	0.90mi
624 Mercado Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,400	$1.44	25d	1	0.96mi
5513 Pimenta Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	15d	1	0.97mi
433 Bloomfield Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1814	$2,120	$1.17	0d	1	0.99mi
1118 Chesterfield Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2088	$2,185	$1.05	25d	1	1.00mi
1044 Darlington Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,059	$0.93	9d	1	1.00mi
402 Bridgewater Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1510	$1,700	$1.13	0d	1	1.06mi
133 Carlisle Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,250	$1.04	6d	1	1.10mi
118 Pompei Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1661	$2,000	$1.20	25d	1	1.16mi
1120 Dartford Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2087	$2,199	$1.05	25d	1	1.16mi
202 Chadworth Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1889	$1,900	$1.01	0d	1	1.16mi
5530 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2175	$2,550	$1.17	25d	1	1.18mi
832 Valnera Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1774	$2,200	$1.24	25d	1	1.21mi
5603 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	9d	1	1.21mi
839 Valnera Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,885	$1.14	23d	1	1.22mi
196 Aurelia Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2308	$2,195	$0.95	6d	1	1.24mi
214 Magellan Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	2052	$1,850	$0.90	25d	1	1.24mi
5639 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,500	$1.31	25d	1	1.25mi
5620 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1910	$2,350	$1.23	25d	1	1.25mi
5626 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,295	$1.43	9d	1	1.26mi
36 Alicante Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1753	$1,895	$1.08	9d	1	1.26mi
306 Colony Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1647	$1,775	$1.08	25d	1	1.30mi
236 Rontunda Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1704	$1,900	$1.12	13d	1	1.31mi
520 Nogales Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1771	$2,450	$1.38	9d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $354,999 Active
3. 2020-01-27
   soldstatus $166,400
4. 2012-08-03
   soldstatus $252,500
5. 1994-10-05
   soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,885
• − Property taxes: −$5,325
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$14,406
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,458
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1302.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3844.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $354,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $166,400 Public Records
• 2012-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $252,500 Public Records
• 1994-10-05 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $559 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.