4527 Kind Way #231 · Hornsby Bend, TX 78725

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,360 sqft · Condo public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2014 $118/sqft · 49% below area Est $312k · 49% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and super affordable 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with a flexible layout and great overall livability. Featuring two separate living areas, there’s plenty of space for relaxing, working from home, or entertaining. The upper-level balcony overlooks the street and adds a nice touch of character, while the private backyard offers a quiet space to unwind or enjoy the outdoors. Located in a convenient area with easy access to Austin, this home presents a strong opportunity for both owner-occupants and investors. Priced to sell and ready for its next chapter.

Key facts

• $38 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2014

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.4% in Hornsby Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,004 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, employment A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Del Valle ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #749 of 826 in TX (top 91%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,264
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -48.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,829
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-14,862
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78725

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,911 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$322 /mo · $3,860/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,602

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $335	-5% $290	+0% $244	+5% $199	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $169	+0% $244	+5% $320	+10% $395
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $285	base $244	+0.5pp $203	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4514 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1293	$1,750	$1.35	5d	1	0.04mi
4606 Kind Way #285 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1180	$1,750	$1.48	44d	1	0.06mi
4505 Senda Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1104	$1,675	$1.52	5d	1	0.08mi
4528 Credo Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1294	$1,775	$1.37	16d	1	0.08mi
4621 Kind Way #271 Austin, TX	2.0	1.0	1192	$1,499	$1.26	5d	1	0.10mi
4603 Truth Way Austin, TX	2.0	2.5	1158	$1,750	$1.51	44d	1	0.15mi
4500 Secure Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1536	$1,700	$1.11	11d	1	0.19mi
4613 Graceful Ln #500 Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	44d	1	0.21mi
4519 Felicity Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1333	$1,695	$1.27	24d	1	0.25mi
15218 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,900	$1.58	44d	1	0.31mi
15215 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,799	$1.25	44d	1	0.34mi
15209 Parrish Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,800	$1.44	24d	1	0.37mi
15105 Verela Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$2,295	$1.28	22d	1	0.43mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	22d	1	0.45mi
15102 Walcott Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1483	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.45mi
3701 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,550	$1.39	44d	1	0.66mi
3509 Conyers Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	0.70mi
3603 Canaan Mathew Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$1,875	$1.05	44d	1	0.71mi
14505 Highsmith St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1227	$1,725	$1.41	24d	1	0.83mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,795	$1.21	13d	1	0.85mi
4206 Boatwright Cv Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,850	$1.25	24d	1	0.85mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	3d	1	0.85mi
4723 Castleman Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,750	$1.25	5d	1	0.85mi
14700 Menifee St Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	2d	1	0.93mi
4300 Sojourner St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.94mi
3415 Crownover St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1203	$1,725	$1.43	44d	1	0.96mi
14011 FM 969 Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$1,332	$1.24	2d	1	0.97mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	4d	1	0.98mi
3504 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,650	$1.31	24d	1	0.98mi
3403 Caleb Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	44d	1	1.01mi
14909 Custis Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1858	$2,150	$1.16	44d	1	1.02mi
3514 Banda Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,850	$2.13	44d	1	1.02mi
15120 Arizona Oak Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,750	$1.32	5d	1	1.03mi
5706 Melody Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,350	$1.96	44d	1	1.14mi
5706 Melody Ln Unit 3 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,200	$1.83	44d	1	1.14mi
15001 Bigelow Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1771	$1,850	$1.04	5d	1	1.16mi
3400 Barksdale Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,750	$1.27	5d	1	1.23mi
5813 Wideleaf Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,700	$1.28	45d	1	1.25mi
3201 Wickham Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,800	$1.31	44d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $160,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $205,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $205,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $205,000 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Charming and super affordable 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with a flexible layout and great overall livability. Featuring two separate living areas, there’s plenty of space for relaxing, working from home, or entertaining. The upper-level balcony overlooks the street and adds a nice touch of character, while the private backyard offers a quiet space to unwind or enjoy the outdoors. Located in a convenient area with easy access to Austin, this home presents a strong opportunity for both owner-occupants and investors. Priced to sell and ready for its next chapter.

16. 2026-04-15
    listed $215,000 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Charming and super affordable 2-bedroom, 2-bath home with a flexible layout and great overall livability. Featuring two separate living areas, there’s plenty of space for relaxing, working from home, or entertaining. The upper-level balcony overlooks the street and adds a nice touch of character, while the private backyard offers a quiet space to unwind or enjoy the outdoors. Located in a convenient area with easy access to Austin, this home presents a strong opportunity for both owner-occupants and investors. Priced to sell and ready for its next chapter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,860 · $322/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,860 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,935
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,860
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,835
• − Management: −$1,835
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $532
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$128
• After-tax cash flow: $2,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Del Valle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816620
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,322
• Composite: 19.13/100
• National rank: #8830
• State rank: #749 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hornsby Bend

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1004
• US rank: #17815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hornsby Bend, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 10,810
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,746
• Household income: $105,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 221.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 53% White 33% Two or more races 22% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -4.74%
• Current HPI: 265.2823
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $205,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-15 Listed $215,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,860 · -13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.