23858 Fiddletown Rd · Lockwood, CA 95689

$225,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1974 2.13 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cabin on 2 plus acres w/ 2 separate lots (APN#'s: 023-510-021 & 022). 3 bedroom septic installed in 2014, great well per seller! Awesome location 45 min to Kirkwood, minutes to town of Volcano for great dining & entertainment! No restriction for animals, great opportunity for horses w/ quick access to national forest. Cabin has been well maintained newer roof & exterior paint, plus shed/workshop. Enjoy the two acres or build another home. Don't miss the chance to own this great cabin in the foothills. No drive by's - flag lot.

Key facts

• 2.13 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; Unpaved driveway/sidewalks
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system (see remarks); 220V in kitchen
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Original condition; 2 stories; Built in 1974
• Construction: Shingle/composition roof
• Exterior features: Private, low-maintenance lot; Dead-end location; Flag lot with irregular shape; Shed(s) on property; Allows horses

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing refrigerator; Free-standing electric range; Kitchen/family combo with laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom (upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower and window
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace; Wood stove; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Living room with attached deck; Uncovered deck; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $133 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (15.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#455 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sutter Creek Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #719 of 1,571 statewide, top 48%, 380 students, 38% FRL); Ione Junior High (math 14% / reading 34%, grade F, #364 of 498 statewide, top 74%, 393 students, 40% FRL); Amador High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 702 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 38% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($222k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $125k; list at $225k implies a 80% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,463 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.54%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,776
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23858 Fiddletown Rd	0.00mi	1/1.0	896 (0%)	0mo	$140,000	$156	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-28,054
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,853
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95689

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,076/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $133

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,726

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $261	-5% $197	+0% $133	+5% $70	+10% $6
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $59	+0% $133	+5% $208	+10% $283
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $191	base $133	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2014-04-10
   soldstatus $125,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,076 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$634/yr (+$53/mo · 58.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,076
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$2,253
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$541
• After-tax cash flow: $2,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Lockwood

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #455
• US rank: #15482

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockwood, CA
• City population: 1,065
• Population (ZIP): 1,065

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Iranian 5% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.91%
• Current HPI: 144.8647
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2014-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,076 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.