4831 Jackson Cove Rd · Tallahassee, FL 32303

$240,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 2007 0.31 ac lot Est $268k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Want a newer-construction home but don't want to be in a homeowner's association or on a tiny little lot just 10' from the neighbor? Want to own a boat, chickens or goats and keep them on your own property at home? This may be your house! Being built in 2007 this home offers low-maintenance vinyl and aluminum exterior, wide covered porch and a screed back porch, too. Inside you'll find a greatroom concept with cathedral ceilings, great for entertaining and family gatherings. Outside you've got a fenced back yard, long driveway with plenty of room for extra parking and direct access to Lake Jackson at the end of the street via the Jackson Cove boat ramp. Call for more information or a private tour!

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Porch; Screened patio/porch; Privacy fencing; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Icemaker; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 (12x10); Bedroom 3 (12x11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling
• Interior features: High ceilings; Screened porch

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $241k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-289/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (21.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canopy Oaks Elementary School (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C, #949 of 2,144 statewide, top 45%, 640 students, 46% FRL); Raa Middle School (math 42% / reading 51%, grade D+, #297 of 571 statewide, top 52%, 855 students, 49% FRL); Leon High School (math 52% / reading 60%, grade C, #131 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,935 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $241k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,208 (21.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4913 Annette Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+7%)	3mo	$262,000	$188	82
4937 Annette Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+3%)	14mo	$269,000	$200	76
4663 Russells Pond Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,350 (+3%)	1mo	$238,500	$177	67
5366 Water Valley Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+1%)	2mo	$238,000	$180	66
5358 Cranford Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-3%)	10mo	$265,000	$210	62
4924 Annette Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,128 (-14%)	15mo	$250,000	$222	57
5257 Water Valley Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+11%)	8mo	$270,000	$185	55
5319 Water Valley Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,175 (-10%)	3mo	$245,000	$209	54
4512 Russells Pond Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-3%)	14mo	$231,000	$183	53
4621 Russells Pond Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-2%)	20mo	$262,000	$205	53
5066 Flagstone Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+11%)	8mo	$345,000	$238	42
4518 Russells Pond Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,122 (-14%)	13mo	$239,350	$213	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-40,404
• Equity at exit: $35,919

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-36,468
• Equity at exit: $20,829

Cash invested: $67,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32303

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,263
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,862/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,923

Max offer price $236,640

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $112	-5% $44	+0% $-24	+5% $-92	+10% $-160
Rent	-10% $-174	-5% $-99	+0% $-24	+5% $51	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $37	base $-24	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,225
• Closing costs: $7,227
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4490 River Breeze Ln Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,400	$1.50	15d	1	0.87mi
4895 Leah Ln Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	15d	1	0.95mi
4910 N Monroe St Tallahassee, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1315	$1,709	$1.30	15d	5	1.02mi
4234 Augustus Oak Ct Unit 4234 Tallahassee, FL	3.0	3.5	1504	$1,600	$1.06	23d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $240,900 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,900 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,900 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,900 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,900 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,900 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,900 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,900 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,900 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $240,900 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-22
    price $244,900
18. 2026-05-11
    price $249,900
19. 2026-05-06
    price $254,900
20. 2026-04-28
    price $256,900
21. 2026-04-02
    listed $261,900 Active
22. 2026-03-01
    historical
23. 2026-01-10
    price $274,900
24. 2025-10-18
    price $284,900
25. 2025-09-18
    price $289,900
26. 2025-08-18
    price $295,900
27. 2025-07-13
    listed $299,900 Active
28. 2019-05-22
    soldstatus $150,000
29. 2019-05-21
    soldstatus $150,000 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Want a newer-construction home but don't want to be in a homeowner's association or on a tiny little lot just 10' from the neighbor? Want to own a boat, chickens or goats and keep them on your own property at home? This may be your house! Being built in 2007 this home offers low-maintenance vinyl and aluminum exterior, wide covered porch and a screed back porch, too. Inside you'll find a greatroom concept with cathedral ceilings, great for entertaining and family gatherings. Outside you've got a fenced back yard, long driveway with plenty of room for extra parking and direct access to Lake Jackson at the end of the street via the Jackson Cove boat ramp. Call for more information or a private tour!

30. 2019-02-26
    listed $150,000 709-char remark

    Show marketing remark (709 chars)

    Want a newer-construction home but don't want to be in a homeowner's association or on a tiny little lot just 10' from the neighbor? Want to own a boat, chickens or goats and keep them on your own property at home? This may be your house! Being built in 2007 this home offers low-maintenance vinyl and aluminum exterior, wide covered porch and a screed back porch, too. Inside you'll find a greatroom concept with cathedral ceilings, great for entertaining and family gatherings. Outside you've got a fenced back yard, long driveway with plenty of room for extra parking and direct access to Lake Jackson at the end of the street via the Jackson Cove boat ramp. Call for more information or a private tour!

31. 2010-08-18
    soldstatus $142,500
32. 2010-08-12
    soldstatus $142,500
33. 2010-05-14
    listed $142,500
34. 2007-09-25
    historical
35. 2007-08-23
    listed $159,900
36. 2007-04-22
    historical
37. 2006-12-26
    historical
38. 2006-10-22
    listed $45,000
39. 2006-10-22
    listed $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,999 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: +$137/yr (+$11/mo · 7.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,494
• − Property taxes: −$1,862
• − Insurance: −$1,204
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,816
• − Management: −$1,816
• − Depreciation: −$7,008
• Taxable loss: −$4,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,079
• After-tax cash flow: $790/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,785
• Household income: $62,275
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2919.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.24%
• Current HPI: 241.3131
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+444.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $244,900 CATRS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $249,900 CATRS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $254,900 CATRS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $256,900 CATRS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $261,900 CATRS
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $274,900 CATRS
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $284,900 CATRS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $289,900 CATRS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $295,900 CATRS
• 2025-07-13 Listed $299,900 CATRS
• 2019-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2019-05-21 Sold (MLS) $150,000 CATRS
• 2019-02-26 Listed $150,000 CATRS
• 2010-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $142,500 Public Records
• 2010-08-12 Sold (MLS) $142,500 CATRS
• 2010-05-14 Listed $142,500 CATRS
• 2007-09-25 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2007-08-23 Listed $159,900 CATRS
• 2007-04-22 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2006-12-26 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2006-10-22 Listed $45,000 CATRS
• 2006-10-22 Listed $45,000 CATRS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,862 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.