196 E Mariana Ave · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$399,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 75 Days on market

Built 1980 0.33 ac lot Est $275k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 196 E Mariana Ave in North Fort Myers, a truly unique property offering exceptional space, character, and outdoor living on an oversized . 33-acre lot. This 4-bedroom, 2 bath home features over 2,500 square feet of living area and more than 5,500 total square feet, providing room to spread out both inside and out. Designed for entertaining and everyday comfort, the home includes a large family room along with an expansive den or entertainment space that can easily adapt to your needs. The interior is highlighted by beautiful pecky cypress ceilings and accent walls, along with a charming vintage indoor fireplace, adding warmth and distinctive Florida character throughout. Step out

Key facts

• Large family room
• Oversized lot
• Expansive den

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• EXPANSIVE DEN
• PECKY CYPRESS CEILINGS
• VINTAGE INDOOR FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE OUTDOOR RETREAT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Oversized lot; Waterfront on a creek; Northeast exposure; Lot dimensions approximately 99 x 145 x 98 x 146
• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-space garage; Driveway parking (paved)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry at level 1; Resale property; Southwest-facing
• Construction: Built with block, concrete and stucco; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Lanai / screened porch; Patio; Porch; Awning(s); Outdoor shower; Water feature; Fruit trees; Outbuilding; In-ground concrete pool with outside bath access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Freezer; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary and additional bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Wall unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Attic with pull-down stairs; Cathedral ceilings; Wet bar; Eat-in kitchen; Living/dining room; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Home office; Workshop; Window coverings / treatments; Multiple shower heads; Jetted tub; Tub/shower combo; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup; Laundry area in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $691 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,433/mo this rent would consume 97% of the median local household income ($55k/yr) (locally 775% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $118k; list at $400k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.97%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $275,440
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1398 Lincoln Ave	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,146 (-14%)	14mo	$237,000	$110	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-22,367
• Equity at exit: $59,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $30,869
• Equity at exit: $34,585

Cash invested: $112,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,433 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,098
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,441/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$931
• Net cashflow: $691

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,558

Max offer price $399,999

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,000
• Closing costs: $12,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3414 Hancock Bridge Pkwy #1204 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.5	2188	$5,900	$2.70	23d	1	1.47mi
3414 Hancock Bridge Pkwy #403 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,500	$2.52	3d	1	1.47mi
3414 Hancock Bridge Pkwy #403 North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1786	$4,500	$2.52	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,999 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,999 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,999 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,999 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $399,999 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,999 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,999 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $399,999 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $399,999 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,999 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-04-03
    listed $399,999 Active
13. 1997-09-30
    soldstatus $118,000
14. 1985-08-01
    soldstatus $96,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,441 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,320 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,879/yr (+$157/mo · 130.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 56% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $53,191
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,406
• − Property taxes: −$1,441
• − Insurance: −$7,118
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,255
• − Management: −$4,255
• − Depreciation: −$11,636
• Taxable income: $2,078
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $7,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+316.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $399,999 FORTMLS
• 1997-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $118,000 Public Records
• 1985-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,441 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.