4426 Twin Lakes Dr · Melbourne, FL 32934

$157,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1984 9,148 sqft lot $115/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You own the land! Very clean open and spacious home in quiet 55+ community. New carpeting and paint in bedrooms with wood laminate flooring throughout. Screened porch, high ceilings, sunny and bright. Custom hurricane shutters. Large laundry room and lots of storage space. Enjoy the community pool and clubhouse! HOA $74/month. A/C 2006. Water Heater 2015. Roof 2016!

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Hurricane shutters

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• HURRICANE SHUTTERS
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• ABUNDANT STORAGE SPACE
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Twin Lakes Country Homes Condo Assoc, Inc; Monthly association fee of $115; Community clubhouse; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water available; Electricity available; Cable available; Sewer available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Faces west
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered, screened side porch; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Pantry; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sabal Elementary School (math 38% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 503 students, 69% FRL); Lyndon B. Johnson Middle School (math 40% / reading 42%, grade F, #353 of 571 statewide, top 63%, 610 students, 61% FRL); Eau Gallie High School (math 20% / reading 49%, grade F, #386 of 667 statewide, top 59%, 1,586 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $107k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.17%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-397
• Equity at exit: $23,484

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $35,771
• Equity at exit: $13,618

Cash invested: $44,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32934

• Home prices YoY: -20.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$826
• Tax from tax record: −$37 /mo · $448/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$115
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,321

Max offer price $157,500

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $463	-5% $418	+0% $374	+5% $329	+10% $285
Rent	-10% $232	-5% $303	+0% $374	+5% $445	+10% $516
Rate	-1.0pp $453	-0.5pp $414	base $374	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,375
• Closing costs: $4,725
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1703 Blanche Ave Melbourne, FL	2.0	2.0	840	$1,650	$1.96	24d	1	0.26mi
3600 Aurora Rd Unit A Melbourne, FL	2.0	1.0	755	$1,850	$2.45	24d	1	0.84mi
1758 Caleb Ln Melbourne, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,350	$1.68	15d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $115 · $1,380/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,500 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,500 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,500 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,500 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $157,500 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $157,500 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $157,500 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $157,500 Active 118 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $157,500 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $157,500 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $157,500 Active 113 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $157,500 Active 112 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,500 Active 111 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $157,500 Active 110 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $157,500
16. 2026-02-09
    listed $163,000 Active
17. 2021-01-26
    soldstatus $107,000
18. 2021-01-25
    soldstatus $107,000 Closed 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    You own the land! Very clean open and spacious home in quiet 55+ community. New carpeting and paint in bedrooms with wood laminate flooring throughout. Screened porch, high ceilings, sunny and bright. Custom hurricane shutters. Large laundry room and lots of storage space. Enjoy the community pool and clubhouse! HOA $74/month. A/C 2006. Water Heater 2015. Roof 2016!

19. 2020-12-04
    historical Contingent 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    You own the land! Very clean open and spacious home in quiet 55+ community. New carpeting and paint in bedrooms with wood laminate flooring throughout. Screened porch, high ceilings, sunny and bright. Custom hurricane shutters. Large laundry room and lots of storage space. Enjoy the community pool and clubhouse! HOA $74/month. A/C 2006. Water Heater 2015. Roof 2016!

20. 2020-11-20
    listed $112,900 Active 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (370 chars)

    You own the land! Very clean open and spacious home in quiet 55+ community. New carpeting and paint in bedrooms with wood laminate flooring throughout. Screened porch, high ceilings, sunny and bright. Custom hurricane shutters. Large laundry room and lots of storage space. Enjoy the community pool and clubhouse! HOA $74/month. A/C 2006. Water Heater 2015. Roof 2016!

21. 2016-08-16
    historical 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SAT. 11/15 FROM 1-3PM. VERY GOOD CURB APPEAL. 24 X 52 FOOT HOME PLUS SHED WITH NEW AIR. CARPET, RANGE, DISHWASHER, FRIG, BLINDS ALL FIVE YEARS OLD. 51 INCHE HITACHI AVAILABLE FOR GOOD PRICE. UP GRADED DRIVE WAY AND CERAMIC PAIN. NEW ROOF. HURRICAN SHUTTERS. NEW FANS. STORAGE SHED. MASTER HAS LARGE WALK IN CLOSET. DINNING ROOM HAS BUILT IN CABINETS. NICE AREA, NICE NEIGHBORS, NICE HOME. '||chr(10)||'Addendum - THIS IS A WELL CARED FOR PROPERTY.

22. 2008-10-15
    listed $89,900 458-char remark

    Show marketing remark (458 chars)

    OPEN HOUSE SAT. 11/15 FROM 1-3PM. VERY GOOD CURB APPEAL. 24 X 52 FOOT HOME PLUS SHED WITH NEW AIR. CARPET, RANGE, DISHWASHER, FRIG, BLINDS ALL FIVE YEARS OLD. 51 INCHE HITACHI AVAILABLE FOR GOOD PRICE. UP GRADED DRIVE WAY AND CERAMIC PAIN. NEW ROOF. HURRICAN SHUTTERS. NEW FANS. STORAGE SHED. MASTER HAS LARGE WALK IN CLOSET. DINNING ROOM HAS BUILT IN CABINETS. NICE AREA, NICE NEIGHBORS, NICE HOME. '||chr(10)||'Addendum - THIS IS A WELL CARED FOR PROPERTY.

23. 1999-01-29
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $448 · $37/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,307 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$859/yr (+$72/mo · 191.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,822
• − Property taxes: −$448
• − Insurance: −$788
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,723
• − Management: −$1,723
• − HOA: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$4,582
• Taxable income: $2,071
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$497
• After-tax cash flow: $3,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Melbourne

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 178,420
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,564
• Household income: $104,369
• Rent vs Own: 12.4% rent · 87.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 233.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.68%
• Current HPI: 315.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.72%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $157,500 SCMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $163,000 SCMLS
• 2021-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $107,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-25 Sold (MLS) $107,000 SCMLS
• 2020-12-04 Contingent — SCMLS
• 2020-11-20 Listed $112,900 SCMLS
• 2016-08-16 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2008-10-15 Listed $89,900 SCMLS
• 1999-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $448 · +10.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.