65 Laurel Trail · Noyack, NY 11963

$2,595,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1963 1,500 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +9.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Renovated Hamptons Retreat Backing Protected Preserve A rare Hamptons opportunity, this beautifully renovated (2022) home offers exceptional privacy and long-term value, backing directly onto protected preserve land that can never be developed, delivering a serene, natural backdrop and lasting sense of seclusion. Inside, the home features a spacious and flexible layout, including a 1,200 sq ft lower level with outstanding potential to be finished. Whether envisioned as a media room, gym, guest suite, or additional living space, it offers the versatility to expand and tailor the home to your lifestyle. Outdoors, there is ample room to add a pool and create a true private retreat, seamlessly

Key facts

• 1,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $2.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $803 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.37M (8.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.37M (8.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,084 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Sag Harbor Union Free School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #175 of 590 in NY (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Sag Harbor Elementary School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 426 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 65 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,717/mo this rent would consume 223% of the median local household income ($128k/yr) (locally 95% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $256k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $238k appreciation (9.2% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (9.2% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $727k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$411k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $750k; list at $2.60M implies a 246% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $2,371,679 (8.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.33%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,396,944
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Valley Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-1%)	11mo	$1,050,000	$742	70
38 Oak Dr	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,300 (-9%)	16mo	$1,381,592	$1,063	41
22 Pine Crest Ln	0.55mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,233 (-13%)	13mo	$1,210,000	$981	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.19% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $1,446,947
• Equity at exit: $2,185,457

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.19×
• Total profit: $4,500,889
• Equity at exit: $4,559,815

Cash invested: $726,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11963

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,608
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$3,244 /mo · $38,925/yr
• Insurance: −$1,081
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,981
• Net cashflow: $803

Break-even live

Break-even rent $22,701

Max offer price $2,595,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,596	-5% $1,699	+0% $803	+5% $-94	+10% $-991
Rent	-10% $-1,071	-5% $-134	+0% $803	+5% $1,740	+10% $2,676
Rate	-1.0pp $2,110	-0.5pp $1,463	base $803	+0.5pp $130	+1.0pp $-554

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $648,750
• Closing costs: $77,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
47 Cliff Dr Sag Harbor, NY	3.0	2.0	1360	$8,000	$5.88	19d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,595,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $2,595,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $284,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$145,360
• − Property taxes: −$38,925
• − Insurance: −$12,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,768
• − Management: −$22,768
• − Depreciation: −$75,491
• Taxable loss: −$33,686
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,085
• After-tax cash flow: $17,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sag Harbor Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3625380
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,547
• Composite: 55.69/100
• National rank: #1222
• State rank: #175 of 590 in NY

Livability — Noyack

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1084
• US rank: #21915

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noyack, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 8,114
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 8,390
• Household income: $127,746
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 95.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.19%
• Current HPI: 499.3304
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+2117.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $2,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $750,000 Public Records
• 1987-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $117,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $4,427 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.