14073 Broken Arrow Dr · Willis, TX 77378

$230,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,081 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2016 7,200 sqft lot $111/sqft · at area comps Est $224k · at est. $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GORGEOUS NEW HOME By KENDALL HOMES! Inviting Entry, Dining Room, Large Family Area, Kitchen w/ Granite Counter, Beautiful Wood Cabinetry, Gas Gooking, Pantry, and Breakfast Area. Master Suite, Master Bath w/ Double Sinks, Tub, Separate Shower, Walk-in Closet. Secondary Bedrooms with Ample Storage. Covered Patio. 2 Car Attached Garage. Radiant Barrier! Granite Counters in Bathrooms.

Key facts

• Martin floor plan
• Brick home
• New plank flooring

Tags

• BRICK HOME
• MARTIN FLOOR PLAN
• NEW PLANK FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,081; Lot about 7,200 sq ft (0.1653 acres)
• HOA & community: Association (IMC) with an annual fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry level: Second level bedrooms
• Construction: Built in 2016; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (22 x 14); Bedroom on second level (13 x 11); Bedroom on second level (10 x 11); Bedroom on second level (9 x 12); Total of 4 bedrooms possible
• Flooring: Laminate; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Laminate, plank, and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-17 ($-207/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (5.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (5.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Willis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#933 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Parmley El (math 39% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 625 students, 72% FRL); Lynn Lucas Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 971 students, 74% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 721 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,169 (5.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $224,024
• List price: $230,000
• Delta: 2.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13692 Running Bear Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,240 (+8%)	4mo	$263,000	$117	71
5604 S Buffalo Cir	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,329 (+12%)	2mo	$265,000	$114	65
5324 Weeping Bow	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-12%)	9mo	$245,000	$135	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-42,588
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-55,114
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 721
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,182 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$414 /mo · $4,965/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $-17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,204

Max offer price $226,957

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $48	+0% $-17	+5% $-82	+10% $-147
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-103	+0% $-17	+5% $69	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $99	-0.5pp $41	base $-17	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $230,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $235,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $235,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $235,000 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $240,000 455-char remark
17. 2026-05-02
    listed $245,000 Active 455-char remark
18. 2026-05-02
    historical
19. 2026-04-15
    status Active
20. 2026-04-15
    price $249,000
21. 2026-03-30
    historical
22. 2026-03-06
    price $255,000
23. 2026-02-03
    price $257,500
24. 2026-01-16
    listed $260,000 Active
25. 2017-02-16
    soldstatus Sold

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    GORGEOUS NEW HOME By KENDALL HOMES! Inviting Entry, Dining Room, Large Family Area, Kitchen w/ Granite Counter, Beautiful Wood Cabinetry, Gas Gooking, Pantry, and Breakfast Area. Master Suite, Master Bath w/ Double Sinks, Tub, Separate Shower, Walk-in Closet. Secondary Bedrooms with Ample Storage. Covered Patio. 2 Car Attached Garage. Radiant Barrier! Granite Counters in Bathrooms.

26. 2016-08-22
    listed $204,740 Active

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    GORGEOUS NEW HOME By KENDALL HOMES! Inviting Entry, Dining Room, Large Family Area, Kitchen w/ Granite Counter, Beautiful Wood Cabinetry, Gas Gooking, Pantry, and Breakfast Area. Master Suite, Master Bath w/ Double Sinks, Tub, Separate Shower, Walk-in Closet. Secondary Bedrooms with Ample Storage. Covered Patio. 2 Car Attached Garage. Radiant Barrier! Granite Counters in Bathrooms.

27. 2007-11-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,965 · $414/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,965 · $414/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$4,965
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,094
• − Management: −$2,094
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$3,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$960
• After-tax cash flow: $753/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Willis

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #933
• US rank: #16579

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $249,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $257,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2017-02-16 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2016-08-22 Listed $204,740 HARMLS
• 2007-11-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+24.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,965 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.