5993 Jaguar Rd · Ropesville, TX 79358

$165,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,785 sqft · SingleFamily · 103 Days on market

Built 1950 2.00 ac lot ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two acres, endless opportunity. Mature pine trees, surrounding the entire property. The opportunities are endless! Dream home, hobby farm, or weekend retreat in the country. Room to spread out, build, and breathe- all while being surrounded by nature's best. Three houses non this 2 acre property but only one is move in ready.

Key facts

• Hobby farm
• Surrounded by nature
• Mature pine trees

Tags

• TWO ACRES
• MATURE PINE TREES
• HOBBY FARM
• WEEKEND RETREAT
• SURROUNDED BY NATURE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $144k (12.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $126k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#593 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, schools D+.
• Ropes ISD (rural): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #87 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Hockley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (6.0% local appreciation)).
• Hockley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,703 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $38,206
• Equity at exit: $103,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $119,775
• Equity at exit: $187,886

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79358

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $143,696

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-33	-5% $-90	+0% $-147	+5% $-204	+10% $-261
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-197	+0% $-147	+5% $-98	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-64	-0.5pp $-105	base $-147	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $170,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Two acres, endless opportunity. Mature pine trees, surrounding the entire property. The opportunities are endless! Dream home, hobby farm, or weekend retreat in the country. Room to spread out, build, and breathe- all while being surrounded by nature's best. Three houses non this 2 acre property but only one is move in ready.

18. 2026-04-14
    price $175,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Two acres, endless opportunity. Mature pine trees, surrounding the entire property. The opportunities are endless! Dream home, hobby farm, or weekend retreat in the country. Room to spread out, build, and breathe- all while being surrounded by nature's best. Three houses non this 2 acre property but only one is move in ready.

19. 2026-03-24
    price $180,000 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Two acres, endless opportunity. Mature pine trees, surrounding the entire property. The opportunities are endless! Dream home, hobby farm, or weekend retreat in the country. Room to spread out, build, and breathe- all while being surrounded by nature's best. Three houses non this 2 acre property but only one is move in ready.

20. 2026-03-04
    price $185,000

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Two acres, endless opportunity. Mature pine trees, surrounding the entire property. The opportunities are endless! Dream home, hobby farm, or weekend retreat in the country. Room to spread out, build, and breathe- all while being surrounded by nature's best. Three houses non this 2 acre property but only one is move in ready.

21. 2026-03-04
    listed $185,000 Active 327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (327 chars)

    Two acres, endless opportunity. Mature pine trees, surrounding the entire property. The opportunities are endless! Dream home, hobby farm, or weekend retreat in the country. Room to spread out, build, and breathe- all while being surrounded by nature's best. Three houses non this 2 acre property but only one is move in ready.

22. 2026-02-23
    price $190,000
23. 2026-01-22
    price $195,000
24. 2025-11-18
    price $210,000
25. 2025-10-15
    price $215,000
26. 2025-10-08
    price $225,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,672
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,121
• After-tax cash flow: $-645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ropes ISD
• NCES district ID: 4837830
• Math proficiency: 54% ▲ 13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,496
• Composite: 49.31/100
• National rank: #2023
• State rank: #87 of 826 in TX

Livability — Ropesville

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #593
• US rank: #11327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,458

Population outlook (Hockley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,295 people
• By 2030: 26,230 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 28,268 · +11.8%
• By 2050: 30,536 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 36,867 · +45.7%
• By 2100: 40,662 · +60.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 23% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hockley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.3) · D 16.6% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: -52.3pp · 2024: -66.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.3 2020: R+62.4 2016: R+62.3 2012: R+57.0 2008: R+52.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.99%
• Current HPI: 197.172
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $170,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $180,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $185,000 LARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $190,000 LARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $195,000 LARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $210,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-15 Price Changed $215,000 LARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $225,000 LARMLS