17002 Hall Shepperd Rd · Sheldon, TX 77049

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 213 Days on market

Built 1963 6,102 sqft lot $106/sqft · 21% below area Est $304k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Primary Bedroom downstairs. Lifetime transferrable warranty on the foundation. 30-year roof installed in 2021. 4-bedroom home. The garage has been converted into a 5th bedroom and 1/2 bath. Across from Sheldon Elementary School!

Key facts

• 6,102 sq ft lot
• Built 1963
• Listed 212 days

Tags

• PRIMARY BEDROOM DOWNSTAIRS
• 30-YEAR ROOF INSTALLED
• GARAGE CONVERTED INTO BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $51 ($615/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Sheldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $201,204 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.92%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,011
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -21.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9110 Johns Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0	2,143 (-5%)	16mo	$425,000	$198	69
17107 Folsom Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0	2,174 (-4%)	23mo	$250,000	$115	63
17202 Woodburn Dr	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,945 (-14%)	5mo	$119,500	$61	60
16422 Sunshine St	0.53mi	4/3.5	1,944 (-14%)	20mo	$750,000	$386	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,950
• Equity at exit: $55,590

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-21,447
• Equity at exit: $56,400

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77049

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,156/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $51

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $240,000 Active 208 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 204 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $240,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2025-11-17
    listed $240,000 Active 230-char remark

    Show marketing remark (230 chars)

    Primary Bedroom downstairs. Lifetime transferrable warranty on the foundation. 30-year roof installed in 2021. 4-bedroom home. The garage has been converted into a 5th bedroom and 1/2 bath. Across from Sheldon Elementary School!

15. 2010-10-30
    historical
16. 2010-05-30
    listed $95,500
17. 1990-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,156 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,236/yr (+$186/mo · 103.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$2,156
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $1,455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sheldon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sheldon, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,418
• Household income: $62,971
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% Black 19% White 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 248.1111
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+151.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-17 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2010-10-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-05-30 Listed $95,500 HARMLS
• 1990-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,156 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.