2809 Serenity Grove Ln · Fort Worth, TX 76179

$316,399

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,091 sqft · Other · 43 Days on market

Built 2025 7,187 sqft lot $52/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

LENNAR - Lonestar Collection at Northpointe - McAllen Floorplan - This two-story home is perfect for families with three bedrooms and an open concept living area. Two bedrooms are situated at the front of the home, including the owner’s suite, which has a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Down the hall is the kitchen, which flows seamlessly into the living room and breakfast nook and connects to a covered patio. Upstairs is an additional bedroom, as well as a game room.

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet
• Covered patio

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• COVERED PATIO
• GAME ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $316k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-512/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD (urban): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #361 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Pointe El (math 49% / reading 49%, grade D, #926 of 4,322 statewide, top 22%, 669 students, 44% FRL); Wayside Middle (math 42% / reading 42%, grade D-, #572 of 1,662 statewide, top 36%, 1,077 students, 39% FRL); Boswell H S (math 49% / reading 62%, grade C, #364 of 1,632 statewide, top 23%, 2,547 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1074 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,196 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.58%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-57,651
• Equity at exit: $47,176

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-68,299
• Equity at exit: $27,356

Cash invested: $88,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76179

• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1074
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,402 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,659
• Tax from tax record: −$97 /mo · $1,166/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$52
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,456

Max offer price $308,863

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $47	+0% $-43	+5% $-132	+10% $-222
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-138	+0% $-43	+5% $52	+10% $147
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $38	base $-43	+0.5pp $-125	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,100
• Closing costs: $9,492
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10212 Regal Bend Ln Saginaw, TX	4.0	2.0	1867	$2,395	$1.28	19d	1	0.13mi
2800 Slatewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,045	$1.41	0d	1	0.14mi
2800 Slatewood Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,045	$1.41	3d	1	0.14mi
2916 Tibbles Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,899	$1.32	26d	1	0.26mi
9833 Trusler Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,050	$1.41	0d	1	0.26mi
2629 Turtle Dove Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1534	$2,075	$1.35	8d	1	0.30mi
9709 Trusler Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	26d	1	0.38mi
10021 Elkhorn Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,595	$1.16	0d	1	0.39mi
10021 Elkhorn Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2238	$2,595	$1.16	4d	1	0.39mi
2528 Northcote Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	2277	$2,306	$1.01	0d	1	0.42mi
9925 Little Tree Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	2081	$2,600	$1.25	26d	1	0.46mi
2521 Birchcrest Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2371	$2,795	$1.18	26d	1	0.50mi
2521 Bunkerton Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$2,450	$1.46	26d	1	0.59mi
2500 Bunkerton Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1674	$1,909	$1.14	26d	1	0.60mi
2633 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,850	$1.38	0d	1	0.70mi
2633 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,850	$1.38	26d	1	0.70mi
2644 Oneida Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$2,800	$1.24	18d	1	0.74mi
10617 Kono Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,500	$1.39	26d	1	0.75mi
10616 Kono Trl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2444	$2,700	$1.10	14d	1	0.77mi
3053 Titan Springs Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$2,320	$1.39	26d	1	0.81mi
2513 Ponca Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2070	$2,495	$1.21	4d	1	0.82mi
2520 Shakopee St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1731	$2,620	$1.51	0d	1	0.86mi
10609 Potawatomi Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	26d	1	0.87mi
10609 Potawatomi Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	3.0	2260	$3,200	$1.42	0d	1	0.87mi
3012 Tooley Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1719	$2,200	$1.28	26d	1	0.90mi
2636 Keokuk St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	26d	1	0.92mi
9108 Lookout Pt Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1711	$2,100	$1.23	9d	1	1.12mi
9021 Eagles Landing Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,295	$1.24	22d	1	1.23mi
8928 Puerto Vista Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,050	$1.26	26d	1	1.24mi
8925 Old Rawhide Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1809	$2,295	$1.27	14d	1	1.25mi
8916 Old Rawhide Ln Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,250	$1.27	26d	1	1.26mi
6212 Flour Mill Run Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,500	$1.37	26d	1	1.32mi
5864 Mount Plymouth Pt Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,100	$1.28	26d	1	1.33mi
8901 Timber Gulch Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,195	$1.52	14d	1	1.33mi
5404 Thornbush Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	2923	$2,900	$0.99	26d	1	1.36mi
10916 Hopewell Cv Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1495	$2,100	$1.40	26d	1	1.37mi
11012 Dillon St Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1735	$2,200	$1.27	14d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $52 · $624/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-03-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-07
   price $316,399
3. 2026-02-26
   price $326,399
4. 2026-02-15
   listed $338,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,166 · $97/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,790 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,624/yr (+$385/mo · 396.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,723
• − Property taxes: −$1,166
• − Insurance: −$1,582
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,306
• − Management: −$2,306
• − HOA: −$624
• − Depreciation: −$9,204
• Taxable loss: −$6,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,461
• After-tax cash flow: $949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eagle Mt-Saginaw ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817700
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $72,781
• Composite: 35.41/100
• National rank: #4945
• State rank: #361 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Worth, TX
• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 80,090
• Household income: $107,428
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1494.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.12%
• Current HPI: 237.6676
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.51%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $316,399 NTREIS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $326,399 NTREIS
• 2026-02-15 Listed $338,999 NTREIS