86 Cherokee Ave · Dover, PA 17315

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,386 sqft · Land · 227 Days on market

Built 2025 $97/sqft · 49% below area Est $267k · 49% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Stand-up shower
• Manufacture warranty
• Double wide home

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE HOME
• MANUFACTURE WARRANTY
• MODERN KITCHEN
• LARGE PANTRY ROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• STAND-UP SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $548 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 4.1% in Dover — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#680 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dover Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #232 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 227 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 227 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.38%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,038
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -49.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $13,029
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $56,369
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17315

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,874 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,025/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $548

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,181

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3712 Castle Dr Dover, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	43d	1	1.18mi
3807 Castle Dr Dover, PA	3.0	2.5	1402	$2,150	$1.53	21d	1	1.28mi
2670 Springhouse Bnd Dover, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,765	$1.78	13d	17	1.29mi
30g Stony Ln Dover, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	697	$1,389	$1.99	13d	13	1.45mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 227 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 219 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 218 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 217 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 213 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 670-char remark
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 209 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $135,000 Active 208 DOM
17. 2026-04-23
    price $135,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

18. 2026-04-23
    status Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

19. 2026-03-10
    historical Active Under Contract 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

20. 2026-02-12
    price $140,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

21. 2026-01-06
    price $150,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

22. 2025-11-14
    price $155,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

23. 2025-10-03
    price $165,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

24. 2025-09-20
    listed $175,000 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET! Welcome to Thunderbird Terrace! This brand-new double wide home is ready for a new owner. Everything is brand new. Home came with a manufacture warranty that can be transferred to the new owner. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. A spacious living room. Modern kitchen with Island and generous size dining area. There is a large pantry room right beside the kitchen area. Master room features a walk-in closet and a stand-up shower. Home is located in dover school district and close to small convenience stores, gas stations, golf course, restaurants etc. . Call to schedule a showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,489
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,025
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,799
• − Management: −$1,799
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $4,702
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,128
• After-tax cash flow: $5,443/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207680
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,418
• Composite: 40.44/100
• National rank: #3725
• State rank: #232 of 539 in PA

Livability — Dover

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #680
• US rank: #6649

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weigelstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,434

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.65%
• Current HPI: 247.2403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-22.9% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-20 Listed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS