2052 Grey Squirrel Trl · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$138,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 333 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 6,534 sqft lot $153/sqft · 24% below area Est $182k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Traveleze 8X38 affixed and enclosed with room additions. Nice living room area with central A/C and a forced heat throughout for full enjoyment all 4 seasons. This sweet little 1 bedroom & 1 bath to call home or use as a weekend retreat. Just a few hours from Phoenix to enjoy the great weather and cool mornings. Home has an addon to give you extra space for family and friends and has out buildings for great storage. Enjoy nature, fresh air and wildlife. RV hook up and plenty of storage including Connex. Affordable home with plenty of space to park your RV or travel trailer.

Key facts

• Storage
• Central a/c
• Rv hook up

Tags

• CENTRAL A/C
• FORCED HEAT
• RV HOOK UP
• STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $138k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $138k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 254 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $954 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 333 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 333 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.40%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,009
• List price: $138,000
• Delta: -24.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2888 Big Pine Rd	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	897 (-0%)	24mo	$158,000	$176	68
2898 Paint Pony Ln	0.10mi	2/2.0 (+1)	981 (+9%)	11mo	$140,000	$143	62
3305 Forest Dr	0.53mi	2/1.0 (+1)	900 (0%)	13mo	$112,500	$125	60
2877 Lazy Bear Trl	0.19mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,025 (+14%)	2mo	$195,000	$190	57
2043 Wilderness Dr	0.19mi	2/2.0 (+1)	977 (+9%)	23mo	$225,000	$230	48
2070 Pinewood Dr	0.65mi	2/2.0 (+1)	840 (-7%)	9mo	$186,000	$221	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,067
• Equity at exit: $20,576

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $22,241
• Equity at exit: $11,932

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,590 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $138,000 Pending 333 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $138,000 Active 333 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $138,000 Active 332 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $138,000 Active 331 DOM
5. 2026-05-17
   price $138,000 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Traveleze 8X38 affixed and enclosed with room additions. Nice living room area with central A/C and a forced heat throughout for full enjoyment all 4 seasons. This sweet little 1 bedroom & 1 bath to call home or use as a weekend retreat. Just a few hours from Phoenix to enjoy the great weather and cool mornings. Home has an addon to give you extra space for family and friends and has out buildings for great storage. Enjoy nature, fresh air and wildlife. RV hook up and plenty of storage including Connex. Affordable home with plenty of space to park your RV or travel trailer.

6. 2025-07-03
   listed $149,000 Active 584-char remark

   Show marketing remark (584 chars)

   Traveleze 8X38 affixed and enclosed with room additions. Nice living room area with central A/C and a forced heat throughout for full enjoyment all 4 seasons. This sweet little 1 bedroom & 1 bath to call home or use as a weekend retreat. Just a few hours from Phoenix to enjoy the great weather and cool mornings. Home has an addon to give you extra space for family and friends and has out buildings for great storage. Enjoy nature, fresh air and wildlife. RV hook up and plenty of storage including Connex. Affordable home with plenty of space to park your RV or travel trailer.

7. 2015-01-03
   historical
8. 2014-05-20
   listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,082
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,527
• − Management: −$1,527
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable income: $1,525
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$366
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant exterior repairs and maintenance, including repainting and roof replacement, to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of significant wear and tear, possibly needing replacement.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and visible damage, indicating a need for repainting or replacement.
• Major exterior fencing — Sections of the fencing are missing or damaged, requiring repair or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding and replace the roof — Fresh paint and a new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and marketability.
• Rental Replace the fencing — A well-maintained fence will enhance the property's rental value by providing a secure and attractive perimeter.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of significant wear and tear, possibly needing replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling paint and visible damage, indicating a need for repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior fencing · Sections of the fencing are missing or damaged, requiring repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint the exterior siding and replace the roof — Fresh paint and a new roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and marketability. ↑
• Rental Replace the fencing — A well-maintained fence will enhance the property's rental value by providing a secure and attractive perimeter. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+176.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $138,000 WMMLS
• 2025-07-03 Listed $149,000 WMMLS
• 2015-01-03 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-05-20 Listed $49,900 ARMLS