26823 Concord Dawn Dr · Fulshear, TX 77406

$389,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,160 sqft · SingleFamily · 65 Days on market

Built 2026 5,484 sqft lot $181/sqft · 23% below area Est $505k · 23% under $63/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

Key facts

• Progreso floor plan
• Versatile game room
• Candela community

Tags

• PROGRESO FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VERSATILE GAME ROOM
• CANDELA COMMUNITY
• RESORT-STYLE AMENITIES
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-562 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1238 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($367k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $277,936 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.18%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $505,400
• List price: $389,990
• Delta: -22.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10323 Melida Dawn Way	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,160 (0%)	3mo	$380,990	$176	96
26714 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.06mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+11%)	0mo	$458,900	$192	77
26827 Stardust Meadow Ct	0.06mi	4/3.5	2,392 (+11%)	1mo	$453,900	$190	76
26718 Concord Dawn Dr	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,443 (+13%)	4mo	$479,900	$196	72
10311 Melida Dawn Way	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,263 (+5%)	2mo	$409,990	$181	69
10630 Starfire Yellow Dr	0.45mi	4/3.0	2,074 (-4%)	4mo	$421,990	$203	69
26822 Chandrila Vista Ct	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,330 (+8%)	2mo	$399,900	$172	57
26419 Polaris Rise Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+10%)	1mo	$415,000	$175	53
10722 Aquila Star Dr	0.45mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+14%)	2mo	$439,520	$178	52
10803 Aquila Star Dr	0.46mi	4/3.5	2,463 (+14%)	2mo	$414,731	$168	51
26303 Polaris Rise Ln	0.67mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,336 (+8%)	1mo	$409,000	$175	50
10818 Cassiopeia Creek Cir	0.54mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,896 (-12%)	0mo	$360,000	$190	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-107,082
• Equity at exit: $58,149

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-170,522
• Equity at exit: $33,719

Cash invested: $109,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77406

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,850/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$63
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$584
• Net cashflow: $-562

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,491

Max offer price $308,604

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-293	-5% $-428	+0% $-562	+5% $-697	+10% $-832
Rent	-10% $-782	-5% $-672	+0% $-562	+5% $-453	+10% $-343
Rate	-1.0pp $-366	-0.5pp $-463	base $-562	+0.5pp $-663	+1.0pp $-766

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,498
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10503 Shinning Dawn Way Richmond, TX	4.0	3.5	2523	$3,399	$1.35	45d	1	0.73mi
25810 Palmdale Estate Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,350	$1.17	45d	1	1.38mi
26122 Serenity Oaks Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	3.0	2438	$2,386	$0.98	6d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $63 · $756/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $389,990 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,990 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,990 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,990 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,990 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,990 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,990 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,990 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $389,990 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $394,990 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $394,990 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $394,990 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $394,990 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $394,990 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $394,990 877-char remark

    Show marketing remark (877 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

16. 2026-05-13
    price $394,990 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Spacious Progreso floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, offering 2,160 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space. This well-appointed home includes 2 bedrooms down and 2 bedrooms up, providing ideal flexibility for multi-generational living or guest accommodations. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a functional space for both everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a versatile game room adds additional living space perfect for relaxing or hosting. The primary suite offers a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms are generously sized for comfort. Located in the desirable Candela community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities, scenic walking trails, and a vibrant master-planned lifestyle with convenient access to major highways, shopping, and dining.

17. 2026-04-29
    price $399,990 877-char remark

    Show marketing remark (877 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

18. 2026-04-28
    price $399,990 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Spacious Progreso floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, offering 2,160 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space. This well-appointed home includes 2 bedrooms down and 2 bedrooms up, providing ideal flexibility for multi-generational living or guest accommodations. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a functional space for both everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a versatile game room adds additional living space perfect for relaxing or hosting. The primary suite offers a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms are generously sized for comfort. Located in the desirable Candela community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities, scenic walking trails, and a vibrant master-planned lifestyle with convenient access to major highways, shopping, and dining.

19. 2026-04-17
    listed $411,956 Active 850-char remark

    Show marketing remark (850 chars)

    Spacious Progreso floor plan featuring 4 bedrooms and 3 full baths, offering 2,160 sqft of thoughtfully designed living space. This well-appointed home includes 2 bedrooms down and 2 bedrooms up, providing ideal flexibility for multi-generational living or guest accommodations. The open-concept layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, creating a functional space for both everyday living and entertaining. Upstairs, a versatile game room adds additional living space perfect for relaxing or hosting. The primary suite offers a private retreat, while the additional bedrooms are generously sized for comfort. Located in the desirable Candela community, residents enjoy resort-style amenities, scenic walking trails, and a vibrant master-planned lifestyle with convenient access to major highways, shopping, and dining.

20. 2026-03-14
    listed $411,956 Active 877-char remark

    Show marketing remark (877 chars)

    The Progreso floorplan is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that features four spacious bedrooms and three bathrooms, perfectly suited for growing families or those who love to entertain. The first floor offers an inviting open-concept layout, with the kitchen seamlessly flowing into the family room and casual dining area. A convenient guest suite or flexible room on the main level adds versatility to the layout. Upstairs, the primary suite provides a private retreat with a walk-in closet and a luxurious en suite bathroom, while the additional bedrooms and a shared game room ensure ample space for relaxation or recreation. The two-car garage rounds out the design, providing functionality and style in every corner of this charming home. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$5,850
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,668
• − Management: −$2,668
• − HOA: −$756
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable loss: −$13,731
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,295
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,918
• Household income: $141,869
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 575.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 15% Black 14% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 3% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.18%
• Current HPI: 222.9525
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.61%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $394,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $399,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $411,956 HARMLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $411,956 Zillow