8762 Private Road 4641 · Baird, TX 79504

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 734 Days on market

Built 1987 24 ac lot ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover your own slice of Texas countryside with this attractive rural retreat nestled on 24 picturesque acres of prime agricultural land just outside of Abilene in the city limits of Baird. The property features a 3 bed, 2 bath mobile home, perfect for enjoying country living with all the essentials. Whether you’re searching for a full-time residence, a peaceful weekend getaway, or the ideal hunting retreat, this property offers endless possibilities. This property also features 2 electric meters & two RV covered parking stalls. Surrounded by scenic views and wide-open spaces, you’ll love the serenity and privacy that comes with rural living. Enjoy outdoor activities rig

Key facts

• Cross fenced land
• 24 acre lot
• 5 parking spots

Tags

• CROSS FENCED LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ag exemption present; Fenced for cattle; Horse permitted; Lot features include acreage, agricultural, level land, large backyard grass, mesquite, tank/pond, few trees; Soil type: sandy loam; Vegetation: brush; Road frontage: private road with dirt/gravel surface; Multi-parcel property; No known restrictions
• Financial info: Listing terms include cash and owner will carry; Property listed For Sale
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 5 vehicles; Carport (detached carport, side-by-side); RV access/parking with RV carport; Boat parking; On-site storage
• Security: Gate; Perimeter fencing
• Utilities: Co-op electric; Electricity connected; Propane; Septic; Overhead utilities; Gravel/rock driveway; Outside city limits; Private road
• Home design: Mobile home (manufactured); One story; Property used as agricultural and residential (multiple possible uses including ranch, pasture, livestock, horses)
• Construction: Metal roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Year built 1987
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Covered front and rear porches; RV hookup; RV/boat parking; Storage; Storm cellar; Outbuilding(s), poultry coop, shed(s), RV/boat storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in cabinets; Eat-in kitchen; Solid-surface countertops (non-natural); Room for freezer; Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, ensuite bath and walk-in closet; Additional bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High-speed internet available; Two living areas; One dining area; Room count: 5; Levels: One
• Laundry & utility: Full-size washer/dryer area; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $541 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#195 in TX, #4,977 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baird ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #731 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Baird El (math 47% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 169 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Callahan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (7.7% local appreciation)).
• Callahan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $62k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 734 days — a 12% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $193,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 734 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.55%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $121,392
• Equity at exit: $163,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.30×
• Total profit: $326,362
• Equity at exit: $320,466

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79504

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,128/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$500
• Net cashflow: $541

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $220,000 Active 734 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $220,000 Active 733 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $220,000 Active 732 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $220,000 Active 731 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $220,000 Active 729 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $220,000 Active 728 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $220,000 Active 725 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 724 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $220,000 Active 723 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $220,000 Active 721 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $220,000 Active 719 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $220,000 Active 718 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $220,000 Active 717 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $220,000 Active 716 DOM
15. 2026-04-13
    historical Active Option Contract
16. 2026-02-23
    price $225,000
17. 2025-08-06
    status Active
18. 2024-10-04
    price $262,500
19. 2024-06-07
    listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,128 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,026 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,898/yr (+$241/mo · 256.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,568
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,128
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,285
• − Management: −$2,285
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable income: $3,045
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$731
• After-tax cash flow: $5,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baird ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809280
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,351
• Composite: 36.29/100
• National rank: #9407
• State rank: #731 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Baird

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #4977

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,995

Population outlook (Callahan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,664 people
• By 2030: 13,578 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 13,283 · -2.8%
• By 2050: 13,008 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 12,354 · -9.6%
• By 2100: 11,326 · -17.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 16% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Callahan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.6) · D 10.9% · R 88.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -61.7pp · 2024: -77.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.6 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+77.2 2012: R+69.8 2008: R+61.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.74%
• Current HPI: 161.9583
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-06 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2024-10-04 Price Changed $262,500 NTREIS
• 2024-06-07 Listed $265,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,128 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.