24 Oak Run · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$259,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 2021 10,019 sqft lot Est $261k · at est. ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully designed, turnkey home offers a balance of modern style and quiet seclusion. Situated on a peaceful street, the property backs up to a serene view of pine trees with no rear neighbors, providing a tranquil view that serves as your own private backdrop. The interior features a spacious, open-concept layout with high ceilings and a thoughtful split-floor plan for added privacy. Stylish and durable luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring runs throughout the entire home, ensuring a cohesive look that is easy to maintain. At the heart of the residence is a chef-ready kitchen complete with granite countertops, soft-close cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and a large island perfect

Key facts

• Private backdrop
• Split-floor plan
• Chef-ready kitchen

Tags

• PRIVATE BACKDROP
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPLIT-FLOOR PLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• CHEF-READY KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-322 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (27.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (27.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Emerald Shores Elementary School (math 30% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,797 of 2,144 statewide, top 86%, 666 students, 74% FRL); Lake Weir Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 1,207 students, 76% FRL); Lake Weir High School (math 23% / reading 34%, grade F, #458 of 667 statewide, top 69%, 1,483 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 683 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,974 (27.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.31%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $261,000
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9150 SE 106th Pl	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,392 (-4%)	6mo	$365,000	$262	71
17 Oak Trl	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+0%)	21mo	$285,400	$196	66
42 Olive Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-8%)	2mo	$196,000	$147	59
80 Olive Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-3%)	8mo	$265,000	$189	56
8 Oak Circle Crse	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,342 (-7%)	24mo	$215,000	$160	54
73 Olive Rd	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,361 (-6%)	13mo	$245,000	$180	54
23 Oak Pass Loop	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+7%)	11mo	$269,000	$173	53
9201 SE 109th Ln	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,425 (-2%)	21mo	$183,000	$128	53
9370 SE 106th Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+10%)	22mo	$259,990	$162	42
11 Elm Loop	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-15%)	17mo	$232,500	$189	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $48,315
• Equity at exit: $162,277

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $149,115
• Equity at exit: $293,331

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 683
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$336 /mo · $4,030/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $-322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,287

Max offer price $203,003

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-175	-5% $-249	+0% $-322	+5% $-396	+10% $-469
Rent	-10% $-471	-5% $-396	+0% $-322	+5% $-248	+10% $-174
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-256	base $-322	+0.5pp $-389	+1.0pp $-458

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Oak Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,795	$1.24	15d	1	0.27mi
21 Olive Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,800	$1.23	15d	1	0.39mi
5 Olive Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,800	$1.24	22d	1	0.46mi
226 Oak Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,675	$1.19	15d	1	0.93mi
2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1083	$1,750	$1.62	15d	1	1.19mi
8 Ash Pass Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,650	$1.46	22d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-05
   price $259,900
3. 2026-03-03
   price $261,400
4. 2026-02-06
   listed $264,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,030 · $336/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,030 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,557
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$4,030
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$8,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,040
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Price Changed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $261,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+38.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,030 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.