6535 Newcastle Ave · Las Cruces, NM 88012

$305,535

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 32 Days on market

Built 2026 4,879 sqft lot $185/sqft · 22% below area Est $390k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into the Big Bend, a thoughtfully crafted floor plan that makes the most of its space. With up to 4 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 2 garage spaces; there is room for an expanding family to grow. Enter the home and step into the open-concept main living area consisting of a spacious Great Room, a dining area, and a gorgeous kitchen complete with a sleek cooktop and stainless steel vent hood, a large island for prepping, and a corner pantry to maximize space. Tucked towards the back of the home, the master suite offers maximum privacy and features a luxurious ensuite with double vanities, a separate water closet, a step-in shower, a large walk-in closet. Two secondary bedrooms and their

Key facts

• Master suite
• Gorgeous kitchen
• Corner pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LIVING AREA
• GORGEOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE ISLAND
• CORNER PANTRY
• MASTER SUITE
• LUXURIOUS ENSUITE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.11 acres; Located in the Metro Verde subdivision; GPS directions available

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: One level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $306k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-356 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (16.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#120 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, commute F.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Monte Vista Elementary (718 students, 100% FRL); Mesa Middle (803 students, 100% FRL); Organ Mountain High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #56 of 110 statewide, top 50%, 1,980 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools at 67% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 598 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,183 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.00%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,611
• List price: $305,535
• Delta: -21.58%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-70,997
• Equity at exit: $45,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-86,057
• Equity at exit: $26,417

Cash invested: $85,550 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,602
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$382 /mo · $4,583/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$467
• Net cashflow: $-356

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,673

Max offer price $253,987

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-251	+0% $-356	+5% $-462	+10% $-567
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-444	+0% $-356	+5% $-268	+10% $-181
Rate	-1.0pp $-202	-0.5pp $-279	base $-356	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-516

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,384
• Closing costs: $9,166
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3652 Springhaven Loop Las Cruces, NM	4.0	3.0	2126	$2,500	$1.18	15d	1	0.59mi
3575 Sierra del Sol Ave Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	45d	1	1.41mi
7559 Vista de Oeste Pl Las Cruces, NM	3.0	2.0	1234	$2,000	$1.62	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $305,535 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,535 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $305,535 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $305,535 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $301,145 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $301,145 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $301,145 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $301,145 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-05-07
   listed $301,145 Active 966-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,115
• − Property taxes: −$4,583
• − Insurance: −$1,528
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,133
• − Management: −$2,133
• − Depreciation: −$8,888
• Taxable loss: −$9,718
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,332
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,943/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Las Cruces

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #120
• US rank: #19687

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Las Cruces, NM
• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• City population: 131,421
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $305,535 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-05-07 Listed $301,145 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID