614 Crescent Ave · East Aurora, NY 14052

$199,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1920 9,385 sqft lot Est $311k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Very nice Village of EA bungalow!! Enjoy this well-maintained home in a great location. Beautiful hardwood floors in large living room with Andersen windows. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Part of the living room is currently used as a third bedroom. Built-ins in upstairs bedrooms. 12x18 Kohler awning over exterior patio. Great starter house or perfect for those looking for a condo/townhouse without the fees. Private setting [off the street].

Key facts

• New hot water tank
• First floor laundry
• Newer appliances

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR LAUNDRY
• NEW ANDERSEN WINDOWS
• RADON MITIGATION SYSTEM
• NEW HOT WATER TANK
• NEW SUMP PUMP
• NEWER APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($171/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.8% in East Aurora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#81 in NY, #1,241 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• East Aurora Union Free School District (town): math 55% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #189 of 590 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Parkdale Elementary School (math 62% / reading 80%, grade A-, #434 of 2,108 statewide, top 21%, 655 students, 12% FRL); East Aurora Middle School (math 27% / reading 59%, grade D-, #370 of 729 statewide, top 51%, 520 students, 14% FRL); East Aurora High School (math 98% / reading 82%, grade A+, #250 of 1,100 statewide, top 24%, 528 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 13% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $178,117 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.31%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $311,040
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
614 Crescent Ave	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,080 (0%)	1mo	$250,000	$231	99
560 Persons St	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,010 (-6%)	5mo	$291,016	$288	75
254 Olean St	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+6%)	21mo	$270,000	$237	60
417 Prospect Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (+7%)	4mo	$165,000	$142	59
725 Warren Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,118 (+4%)	11mo	$396,000	$354	48
149 Castle Hill Rd	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+11%)	20mo	$403,165	$336	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-31,302
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-25,937
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14052

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,197/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,763

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $127	-5% $71	+0% $14	+5% $-42	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-126	-5% $-56	+0% $14	+5% $85	+10% $155
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $65	base $14	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-90

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
425 Prospect Ave Unit 10 East Aurora, NY	1.0	1.0	900	$1,890	$2.10	45d	1	0.38mi
425 Prospect Ave Apt 6 East Aurora, NY	1.0	1.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	3d	1	0.38mi
325 Mill Rd East Aurora, NY	2.0	1.5	1200	$1,380	$1.15	3d	1	0.96mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-03-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   listed $199,000 Active
3. 2020-04-27
   soldstatus $150,000 Closed Sale or Rented 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Very nice Village of EA bungalow!! Enjoy this well-maintained home in a great location. Beautiful hardwood floors in large living room with Andersen windows. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Part of the living room is currently used as a third bedroom. Built-ins in upstairs bedrooms. 12x18 Kohler awning over exterior patio. Great starter house or perfect for those looking for a condo/townhouse without the fees. Private setting [off the street].

4. 2020-04-21
   soldstatus $157,500
5. 2020-02-06
   status Pending Sale 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Very nice Village of EA bungalow!! Enjoy this well-maintained home in a great location. Beautiful hardwood floors in large living room with Andersen windows. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Part of the living room is currently used as a third bedroom. Built-ins in upstairs bedrooms. 12x18 Kohler awning over exterior patio. Great starter house or perfect for those looking for a condo/townhouse without the fees. Private setting [off the street].

6. 2020-02-06
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Very nice Village of EA bungalow!! Enjoy this well-maintained home in a great location. Beautiful hardwood floors in large living room with Andersen windows. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Part of the living room is currently used as a third bedroom. Built-ins in upstairs bedrooms. 12x18 Kohler awning over exterior patio. Great starter house or perfect for those looking for a condo/townhouse without the fees. Private setting [off the street].

7. 2019-11-19
   price $164,900 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Very nice Village of EA bungalow!! Enjoy this well-maintained home in a great location. Beautiful hardwood floors in large living room with Andersen windows. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Part of the living room is currently used as a third bedroom. Built-ins in upstairs bedrooms. 12x18 Kohler awning over exterior patio. Great starter house or perfect for those looking for a condo/townhouse without the fees. Private setting [off the street].

8. 2019-11-03
   listed $174,900 Active 439-char remark

   Show marketing remark (439 chars)

   Very nice Village of EA bungalow!! Enjoy this well-maintained home in a great location. Beautiful hardwood floors in large living room with Andersen windows. 2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths. Part of the living room is currently used as a third bedroom. Built-ins in upstairs bedrooms. 12x18 Kohler awning over exterior patio. Great starter house or perfect for those looking for a condo/townhouse without the fees. Private setting [off the street].

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,197 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,280 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 2.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,197
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,174
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$762
• After-tax cash flow: $932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Aurora Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609540
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,345
• Composite: 54.63/100
• National rank: #1334
• State rank: #189 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Aurora

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #1241

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Aurora, NY
• Population (ZIP): 17,501

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.44%
• Current HPI: 327.8237
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+13.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $199,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-04-27 Sold (MLS) $150,000 WNYREIS
• 2020-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $157,500 Public Records
• 2020-02-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2020-02-06 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-11-19 Price Changed $164,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-11-03 Listed $174,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,197 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.